Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Shopify Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Shopify Inc. is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $218.11B. It ranks number 6 by market capitalization among the 60 Services-Prepackaged Software issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For SHOP, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 5.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 23.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.1%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, SHOP included.
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How SHOP ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Services-Prepackaged Software peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SHOP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $218.11B | 6/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 120.23x | 6/39 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.20x | 10/52 |
| EPS | $1.41 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $9.86 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $10.31 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.83 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SHOP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 15.2% | 23/47 |
| ROA | 13.3% | 13/48 |
| ROIC | 14.2% | 19/54 |
| Gross Margin | 47.8% | 52/56 |
| Operating Margin | 13.9% | 24/59 |
| Net Margin | 14.5% | 25/50 |
| EBT Margin | 14.2% | 27/59 |
| Tax Rate | 21.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | SHOP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 5.35x | 3/59 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.14x | 51/53 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.14x | 50/51 |
| Interest Coverage | 631.0x | 2/46 |
| Working Capital | $6.36B | 6/59 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SHOP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.38B | 11/59 |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.35B | 8/50 |
| Capital Spending | -$25M | 27/50 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 65.6% | 12/52 |
| FCF/Sales | 17.7% | 38/50 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.2% | 48/50 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | SHOP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.92x | 7/49 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 250.4x | 1/51 |
Income Statement
| Metric | SHOP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $13.27B | 7/53 |
| Operating Income | $1.84B | 9/59 |
| Net Income | $1.93B | 7/50 |
| R&D Expense | $1.65B | 13/59 |
| SG&A Expense | $3.29B | 14/58 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $6.93B | 5/57 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SHOP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 1287M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 153.1% | 4/30 |
| EPS Growth | 27.9% | 16/36 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $7.82B | 54.0% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.66B | 11.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.79B | 12.3% of assets |
SHOP quarterly financials and insider trading
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Shopify Inc. (Services-Prepackaged Software): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SHOP Shopify Inc. | ▲ | $218.11B |
| MSFT Microsoft Corp | ▼ | $3.93T |
| PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | ▲ | $447.01B |
| ORCL Oracle Corp | ▲ | $387.73B |
| SAP Sap Se | ▼ | $275.54B |
| CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $232.83B |
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | ▶ | $198.10B |
| NET Cloudflare, Inc. | ▲ | $105.51B |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | ▼ | $95.43B |
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | ▲ | $88.73B |
| SNPS Synopsys Inc | ▶ | $87.12B |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems Inc | ▶ | $86.97B |
| NTES Netease, Inc. | ▼ | $80.22B |
| TEAM Atlassian Corp | ▶ | $52.61B |
| VEEV Veeva Systems Inc | ▼ | $50.25B |
| ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | ▼ | $50.14B |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | ▶ | $46.80B |
| TTWO Take Two Interactive Software Inc | ▼ | $38.38B |
| TWLO Twilio Inc | ▲ | $37.53B |
| RBLX Roblox Corp | ▲ | $35.39B |
| CRWV Coreweave, Inc. | ▲ | $33.86B |
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | ▲ | $32.74B |
| MDB Mongodb, Inc. | ▲ | $27.19B |
| RBRK Rubrik, Inc. | ▲ | $23.30B |
| PTC Ptc Inc. | ▶ | $20.94B |
| SSNC Ss&C Technologies Holdings Inc | ▼ | $19.73B |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | ▶ | $18.11B |
| DT Dynatrace, Inc. | ▶ | $17.66B |
| TYL Tyler Technologies Inc | ▼ | $14.78B |
| CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd | ▼ | $14.56B |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | ▲ | $14.46B |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | ▲ | $13.85B |
| MANH Manhattan Associates Inc | ▼ | $12.95B |
| HUBS Hubspot Inc | ▲ | $11.52B |
| FIG Figma, Inc. | ▲ | $11.45B |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | ▶ | $11.34B |
| SAIL Sailpoint, Inc. | ▲ | $10.70B |
| BSY Bentley Systems Inc | ▶ | $10.69B |
| FROG Jfrog Ltd | ▲ | $10.40B |
| ESTC Elastic N.V. | ▶ | $9.63B |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corp | ▼ | $8.82B |
| GTLB Gitlab Inc. | ▲ | $8.79B |
| PCOR Procore Technologies, Inc. | ▶ | $8.66B |
| DBX Dropbox, Inc. | ▶ | $8.03B |
| ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | ▲ | $7.83B |
| NTSK Netskope Inc | ▲ | $7.76B |
| APPF Appfolio Inc | ▼ | $7.51B |
| S Sentinelone, Inc. | ▲ | $7.51B |
| DSGX Descartes Systems Group Inc | ▼ | $7.49B |
| TTAN Servicetitan, Inc. | ▲ | $7.15B |
| NICE Nice Ltd. | ▶ | $6.78B |
| PATH Uipath, Inc. | ▲ | $6.70B |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | ▲ | $6.63B |
| NAVN Navan, Inc. | ▲ | $6.61B |
| GLBE Global-E Online Ltd. | ▲ | $6.56B |
| QLYS Qualys, Inc. | ▲ | $6.26B |
| CVLT Commvault Systems Inc | ▲ | $6.18B |
| MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. | ▲ | $5.88B |
| VRNS Varonis Systems Inc | ▶ | $5.60B |
| BOX Box Inc | ▶ | $5.43B |
Where SHOP sits on the market map
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock news
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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Shopify Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Shopify Inc. stock predictions?
For SHOP, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 5.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 23.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Shopify Inc. forecasts updated?
Shopify Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Shopify Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, SHOP included, share the SEC industry code Services-Prepackaged Software. The largest are: Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Sap Se (SAP), Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), Salesforce, Inc. (CRM).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.