Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Tesla, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Tesla, Inc. is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.40T. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 23 Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its P/B Ratio of 16.13x is the highest of the 12 peers that report one.
For TSLA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 24.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 10.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, TSLA included.
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How TSLA ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | TSLA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.40T | 1/23 |
| P/E Ratio | 331.51x | 1/7 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.13x | 1/12 |
| EPS | $1.07 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $21.99 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $26.24 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.46 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | TSLA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4% | 6/13 |
| ROA | 2.6% | 5/14 |
| ROIC | 3.9% | 3/12 |
| Gross Margin | 18.9% | 5/14 |
| Operating Margin | 4.2% | 3/15 |
| Net Margin | 3.7% | 6/14 |
| EBT Margin | 5.0% | 4/16 |
| Tax Rate | 25.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | TSLA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.94x | 4/18 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.55x | 3/17 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.70x | 14/15 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.71x | 14/15 |
| Interest Coverage | 4.8x | 4/15 |
| Working Capital | $33.33B | 1/17 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | TSLA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $18.68B | 4/17 |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.76B | 5/13 |
| Capital Spending | -$12.92B | 13/13 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 18.5% | 3/7 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 3.2% | 2/7 |
| FCF/Sales | 5.6% | 6/13 |
| CapEx/Sales | 12.5% | 5/13 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | TSLA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.70x | 5/12 |
| Receivables Turnover | 25.4x | 1/9 |
| Inventory Turnover | 6.1x | 6/14 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.2x | 5/10 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 14 days | 9/9 |
| Days Inventory | 60 days | 9/14 |
| Payables Period | 67 days | 7/10 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 8 days | 6/7 |
Income Statement
| Metric | TSLA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $103.62B | 5/14 |
| Operating Income | $4.37B | 3/15 |
| Net Income | $3.80B | 3/15 |
| R&D Expense | $7.73B | 1/13 |
| SG&A Expense | $7.03B | 3/13 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $84.08B | 2/14 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | TSLA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 3950M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -37.3% | 5/8 |
| EPS Growth | -45.1% | 5/7 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $68.76B | 46.3% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $15.22B | 10.2% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $4.09B | 2.8% of assets |
| Inventory | $13.75B | 9.3% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $61.01B | 41.1% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $20.10B | 13.5% of assets |
TSLA quarterly financials and insider trading
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Tesla, Inc. (Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies): 23 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | ▼ | $1.40T |
| TM Toyota Motor Corp/ | ▼ | $253.64B |
| GM General Motors Co | ▶ | $73.67B |
| RACE Ferrari N.V. | ▼ | $70.93B |
| PCAR Paccar Inc | ▶ | $58.33B |
| F Ford Motor Co | ▶ | $49.57B |
| HMC Honda Motor Co Ltd | ▼ | $44.48B |
| RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. / De | ▶ | $16.92B |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | ▼ | $12.66B |
| LI Li Auto Inc. | ▼ | $11.55B |
| NIO Nio Inc. | ▼ | $8.49B |
| OSK Oshkosh Corp | ▶ | $8.04B |
| FSS Federal Signal Corp /De/ | ▼ | $6.86B |
| LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | ▶ | $1.23B |
| PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding Uk Plc | ▶ | $641M |
| LOT Lotus Technology Inc. | ▲ | $377M |
| GGR Gogoro Inc. | ▲ | $63M |
| WKHS Workhorse Group Inc. | ▼ | $32M |
| AIEV Thunder Power Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $14M |
| CENN Cenntro Inc. | ▶ | $8M |
| FLYE Fly-E Group, Inc. | ▼ | $6M |
| FFAI Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. | ▼ | $5M |
| BINI Bollinger Innovations, Inc. | ▼ | $870K |
Where TSLA sits on the market map
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock news
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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Tesla, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Tesla, Inc. stock predictions?
For TSLA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 24.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 10.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Tesla, Inc. forecasts updated?
Tesla, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Tesla, Inc.'s industry peers?
23 issuers in our coverage, TSLA included, share the SEC industry code Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies. The largest are: Toyota Motor Corp/ (TM), General Motors Co (GM), Ferrari N.V. (RACE), Paccar Inc (PCAR), Ford Motor Co (F), Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.