Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Forecast Oct. 20, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 20, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 20, 2026, ALRM is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 4016 stocks scored that day.
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.82B. It ranks number 60 by market capitalization among the 60 Services-Prepackaged Software issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For ALRM, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 0.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-08-02 and 2026-07-22 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 5.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-02 and 2026-09-18. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-20 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, ALRM included.
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How ALRM ranks among 4016 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Services-Prepackaged Software peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.82B | 60/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 24.87x | 26/39 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.26x | 47/53 |
| EPS | $2.31 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $17.61 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $21.61 | – |
| FCF/Share | $3.82 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 13.6% | 25/48 |
| ROA | 7.1% | 23/49 |
| ROIC | 9.1% | 24/54 |
| Gross Margin | 65.8% | 44/56 |
| Operating Margin | 12.8% | 27/59 |
| Net Margin | 11.1% | 30/51 |
| EBT Margin | 14.7% | 26/59 |
| Tax Rate | 24.7% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 4.96x | 4/59 |
| Quick Ratio | 4.38x | 1/10 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.86x | 26/54 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.92x | 22/52 |
| Interest Coverage | 3.1x | 31/46 |
| Working Capital | $640M | 29/59 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $199M | 52/59 |
| Free Cash Flow | $188M | 43/50 |
| Capital Spending | -$11M | 14/50 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 10.4% | 46/52 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 14.0% | 31/43 |
| FCF/Sales | 17.7% | 39/50 |
| CapEx/Sales | 1.1% | 25/50 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.64x | 13/49 |
| Receivables Turnover | 6.6x | 25/52 |
| Inventory Turnover | 3.8x | 8/9 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 15.6x | 36/52 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 56 days | 28/52 |
| Days Inventory | 95 days | 2/9 |
| Payables Period | 30 days | 20/56 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 121 days | 2/7 |
Income Statement
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.06B | 48/53 |
| Operating Income | $136M | 34/59 |
| Net Income | $118M | 34/51 |
| R&D Expense | $276M | 45/59 |
| SG&A Expense | $311M | 58/58 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $363M | 40/57 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | ALRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 49M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 230.0% | 4/31 |
| EPS Growth | 0.4% | 30/36 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $801M | 48.4% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $479M | 28.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $162M | 9.8% of assets |
| Inventory | $94M | 5.7% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $747M | 45.1% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $132M | 7.9% of assets |
ALRM quarterly financials and insider trading
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (Services-Prepackaged Software): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $2.82B |
| MSFT Microsoft Corp | ▼ | $3.96T |
| PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | ▲ | $466.52B |
| ORCL Oracle Corp | ▲ | $391.85B |
| SAP Sap Se | ▼ | $277.68B |
| CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $233.56B |
| SHOP Shopify Inc. | ▲ | $220.09B |
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | ▶ | $199.54B |
| NET Cloudflare, Inc. | ▲ | $105.96B |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | ▼ | $96.17B |
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | ▲ | $93.49B |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems Inc | ▼ | $88.69B |
| SNPS Synopsys Inc | ▼ | $87.11B |
| NTES Netease, Inc. | ▼ | $80.55B |
| TEAM Atlassian Corp | ▶ | $54.36B |
| VEEV Veeva Systems Inc | ▼ | $51.29B |
| ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | ▼ | $50.31B |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | ▶ | $46.80B |
| TWLO Twilio Inc | ▲ | $39.51B |
| TTWO Take Two Interactive Software Inc | ▶ | $38.32B |
| RBLX Roblox Corp | ▲ | $36.25B |
| CRWV Coreweave, Inc. | ▲ | $33.71B |
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | ▲ | $33.20B |
| MDB Mongodb, Inc. | ▲ | $28.09B |
| RBRK Rubrik, Inc. | ▲ | $23.51B |
| PTC Ptc Inc. | ▶ | $20.95B |
| SSNC Ss&C Technologies Holdings Inc | ▼ | $19.86B |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | ▶ | $18.27B |
| DT Dynatrace, Inc. | ▲ | $17.79B |
| TYL Tyler Technologies Inc | ▼ | $14.75B |
| CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd | ▼ | $14.67B |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | ▲ | $14.15B |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | ▲ | $14.06B |
| MANH Manhattan Associates Inc | ▶ | $13.14B |
| HUBS Hubspot Inc | ▲ | $11.70B |
| FIG Figma, Inc. | ▲ | $11.48B |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | ▲ | $11.40B |
| FROG Jfrog Ltd | ▲ | $11.22B |
| BSY Bentley Systems Inc | ▶ | $11.10B |
| SAIL Sailpoint, Inc. | ▲ | $10.79B |
| ESTC Elastic N.V. | ▶ | $9.93B |
| GTLB Gitlab Inc. | ▲ | $8.88B |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corp | ▼ | $8.82B |
| PCOR Procore Technologies, Inc. | ▶ | $8.81B |
| DBX Dropbox, Inc. | ▲ | $8.11B |
| NTSK Netskope Inc | ▲ | $7.93B |
| ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | ▲ | $7.83B |
| S Sentinelone, Inc. | ▲ | $7.56B |
| APPF Appfolio Inc | ▼ | $7.51B |
| TTAN Servicetitan, Inc. | ▲ | $7.47B |
| DSGX Descartes Systems Group Inc | ▼ | $7.45B |
| NICE Nice Ltd. | ▲ | $6.88B |
| PATH Uipath, Inc. | ▲ | $6.84B |
| GLBE Global-E Online Ltd. | ▲ | $6.71B |
| NAVN Navan, Inc. | ▲ | $6.68B |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | ▲ | $6.65B |
| QLYS Qualys, Inc. | ▲ | $6.58B |
| CVLT Commvault Systems Inc | ▲ | $6.33B |
| MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. | ▲ | $5.85B |
| VRNS Varonis Systems Inc | ▲ | $5.59B |
Where ALRM sits on the market map
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock news
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Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) stock forecast?
On Oct. 20, 2026, ALRM is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 4016 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. stock predictions?
For ALRM, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 0.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-08-02 and 2026-07-22 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 5.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-02 and 2026-09-18. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. forecasts updated?
Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 20, 2026.
Which companies are Alarm.Com Holdings, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, ALRM included, share the SEC industry code Services-Prepackaged Software. The largest are: Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Sap Se (SAP), Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), Shopify Inc. (SHOP).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.