Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Cheesecake Factory Inc outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Cheesecake Factory Inc is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $5.72B. It ranks number 11 by market capitalization among the 41 Retail-Eating Places issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For CAKE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 24.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -1.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, CAKE included.
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How CAKE ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Eating Places peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | CAKE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $5.72B | 11/41 |
| P/E Ratio | 26.42x | 10/28 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.02x | 5/28 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.97% | 14/16 |
| EPS | $4.35 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $10.43 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $77.92 | – |
| FCF/Share | $4.15 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | CAKE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 34.4% | 4/20 |
| ROA | 5.4% | 12/28 |
| ROIC | 7.9% | 17/34 |
| Operating Margin | 5.3% | 16/38 |
| Net Margin | 4.6% | 16/30 |
| EBT Margin | 5.1% | 19/40 |
| Tax Rate | 9.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | CAKE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.59x | 22/39 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.52x | 21/34 |
| D/E Ratio | 5.35x | 6/29 |
| Financial Leverage | 6.35x | 7/26 |
| Interest Coverage | 12.0x | 11/34 |
| Working Capital | -$295M | 32/39 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | CAKE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $354M | 10/40 |
| Free Cash Flow | $206M | 10/34 |
| Capital Spending | -$148M | 21/34 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 45.7% | 6/35 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 129.0% | 4/21 |
| FCF/Sales | 5.3% | 13/34 |
| CapEx/Sales | 3.8% | 25/34 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | CAKE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.18x | 14/32 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 4.3x | 19/34 |
Income Statement
| Metric | CAKE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $3.88B | 11/35 |
| Operating Income | $204M | 10/38 |
| Net Income | $179M | 10/30 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | CAKE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.11 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 25.5% | 15/15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 50M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 20.9% | 8/21 |
| EPS Growth | 102.3% | 2/23 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $419M | 12.7% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $195M | 5.9% of assets |
| Inventory | $51M | 1.5% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $2.78B | 84.2% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $643M | 19.5% of assets |
CAKE quarterly financials and insider trading
Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Cheesecake Factory Inc (Retail-Eating Places): 41 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE Cheesecake Factory Inc | ▲ | $5.72B |
| MCD Mcdonalds Corp | ▼ | $171.94B |
| YUM Yum Brands Inc | ▼ | $41.07B |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc | ▲ | $37.82B |
| QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | ▼ | $26.12B |
| DRI Darden Restaurants Inc | ▼ | $24.48B |
| YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $15.45B |
| ARMK Aramark | ▼ | $14.57B |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | ▶ | $11.05B |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc | ▶ | $8.53B |
| CAVA Cava Group, Inc. | ▶ | $6.69B |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | ▶ | $3.59B |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc | ▲ | $1.54B |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $1.37B |
| BJRI Bjs Restaurants Inc | ▶ | $1.26B |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | ▲ | $1.19B |
| BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | ▲ | $852M |
| FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | ▶ | $748M |
| PZZA Papa Johns International Inc | ▶ | $638M |
| LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $497M |
| KRUS Kura Sushi Usa, Inc. | ▶ | $463M |
| NATH Nathans Famous, Inc. | ▼ | $418M |
| DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. | ▶ | $405M |
| PTLO Portillo's Inc. | ▶ | $354M |
| PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. | ▲ | $265M |
| JACK Jack In The Box Inc | ▲ | $234M |
| RICK Rci Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $196M |
| RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc | ▲ | $167M |
| BDL Flanigans Enterprises Inc | ▼ | $89M |
| NDLS Noodles & Co | ▶ | $83M |
| GENK Gen Restaurant Group, Inc. | ▶ | $56M |
| STKS One Group Hospitality, Inc. | ▲ | $45M |
| LVO Liveone, Inc. | ▲ | $32M |
| CCHH Cch Holdings Ltd | ▶ | $19M |
| ARKR Ark Restaurants Corp | ▼ | $16M |
| GTIM Good Times Restaurants Inc. | ▶ | $15M |
| NROM Noble Romans Inc | ▲ | $13M |
| REBN Reborn Coffee, Inc. | ▶ | $12M |
| BTBD Bt Brands, Inc. | ▲ | $10M |
| BABB Bab, Inc. | ▼ | $6M |
| VSTD Vestand Inc. | ▲ | $20K |
Where CAKE sits on the market map
Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) stock news
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Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Cheesecake Factory Inc outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Cheesecake Factory Inc stock predictions?
For CAKE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 24.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -1.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Cheesecake Factory Inc forecasts updated?
Cheesecake Factory Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Cheesecake Factory Inc's industry peers?
41 issuers in our coverage, CAKE included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Eating Places. The largest are: Mcdonalds Corp (MCD), Yum Brands Inc (YUM), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR), Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI), Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.