First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $794M. It ranks number 19 by market capitalization among the 41 Retail-Eating Places issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its Current Ratio of 0.25x is the lowest of the 39 peers that report one.
For FWRG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -1.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 12.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, FWRG included.
FWRG price chart and AI forecast
How FWRG ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Eating Places peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $794M | 19/41 |
| P/E Ratio | 37.82x | 7/27 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.23x | 26/29 |
| EPS | $0.34 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $10.43 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $21.91 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-0.34 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0% | 18/22 |
| ROA | 1.1% | 20/26 |
| ROIC | 1.8% | 24/33 |
| Operating Margin | 2.2% | 25/37 |
| Net Margin | 1.4% | 21/29 |
| EBT Margin | 0.8% | 26/39 |
| Tax Rate | -80.5% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.25x | 39/39 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.21x | 28/33 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.89x | 15/30 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.89x | 14/27 |
| Interest Coverage | 2.3x | 18/33 |
| Working Capital | -$144M | 28/39 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $129M | 17/39 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$21M | 31/33 |
| Capital Spending | -$150M | 20/33 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -1.1% | 21/34 |
| FCF/Sales | -1.6% | 27/33 |
| CapEx/Sales | 11.1% | 5/33 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.73x | 24/31 |
| Receivables Turnover | 188.7x | 1/23 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.5x | 26/33 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 2 days | 23/23 |
Income Statement
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.35B | 16/34 |
| Operating Income | $29M | 21/37 |
| Net Income | $20M | 19/29 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | FWRG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 62M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 294.7% | 2/20 |
| EPS Growth | 6.2% | 9/22 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $47M | 2.5% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $21M | 1.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $7M | 0.4% of assets |
| Inventory | $7M | 0.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.21B | 65.4% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $181M | 9.7% of assets |
FWRG quarterly financials and insider trading
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (Retail-Eating Places): 41 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | $794M | |
| MCD Mcdonalds Corp | $196.75B | |
| YUM Yum Brands Inc | $45.33B | |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc | $43.55B | |
| QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $27.08B | |
| DRI Darden Restaurants Inc | $25.61B | |
| YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. | $17.04B | |
| ARMK Aramark | $13.85B | |
| TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $12.59B | |
| EAT Brinker International, Inc | $8.83B | |
| CAVA Cava Group, Inc. | $6.91B | |
| JMKE Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. | $6.04B | |
| CAKE Cheesecake Factory Inc | $5.31B | |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $4.42B | |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc | $1.45B | |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | $1.43B | |
| BJRI Bjs Restaurants Inc | $1.18B | |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. | $1.02B | |
| BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | $835M | |
| PZZA Papa Johns International Inc | $655M | |
| PTLO Portillo's Inc. | $480M | |
| DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. | $454M | |
| LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | $453M | |
| KRUS Kura Sushi Usa, Inc. | $333M | |
| JACK Jack In The Box Inc | $275M | |
| PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. | $272M | |
| RICK Rci Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | $221M | |
| RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc | $163M | |
| BDL Flanigans Enterprises Inc | $109M | |
| NDLS Noodles & Co | $84M | |
| GENK Gen Restaurant Group, Inc. | $43M | |
| STKS One Group Hospitality, Inc. | $36M | |
| LVO Liveone, Inc. | $32M | |
| ARKR Ark Restaurants Corp | $17M | |
| CCHH Cch Holdings Ltd | $16M | |
| NROM Noble Romans Inc | $14M | |
| GTIM Good Times Restaurants Inc. | $13M | |
| REBN Reborn Coffee, Inc. | $11M | |
| BTBD Bt Brands, Inc. | $10M | |
| BABB Bab, Inc. | $6M | |
| VSTD Vestand Inc. | $20K |
Where FWRG sits on the market map
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock news
Loading...
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) stock forecast?
Our AI scores First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. stock predictions?
For FWRG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -1.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 12.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. forecasts updated?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s industry peers?
41 issuers in our coverage, FWRG included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Eating Places. The largest are: Mcdonalds Corp (MCD), Yum Brands Inc (YUM), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR), Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI), Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.