Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
On Oct. 16, 2026, HFWA is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Heritage Financial Corp /Wa/ is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.13B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 31 Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For HFWA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 8.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 14.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, HFWA included.
Follow HFWA free90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered peers listed below that report each metric.
| Metric | HFWA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.13B | 3/31 |
| P/E Ratio | 13.64x | 21/27 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02x | 13/31 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.05% | 4/14 |
| EPS | $2.02 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $27.12 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $7.21 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.97 | – |
| Metric | HFWA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0% | 11/27 |
| ROA | 0.9% | 6/25 |
| Net Margin | 26.4% | 9/27 |
| EBT Margin | 30.9% | 11/28 |
| Tax Rate | 14.5% | – |
| Metric | HFWA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 6.60x | 18/33 |
| Financial Leverage | 7.60x | 16/31 |
| Metric | HFWA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $90M | 3/28 |
| Free Cash Flow | $80M | 1/19 |
| Capital Spending | -$10M | 17/18 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 4.1% | 19/22 |
| FCF Growth YoY | -2.0% | 11/14 |
| FCF/Sales | 27.3% | 10/19 |
| CapEx/Sales | 3.3% | 7/18 |
| Metric | HFWA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.04x | 4/25 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 3.0x | 18/25 |
| Metric | HFWA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $295M | 3/27 |
| Net Income | $78M | 2/27 |
| Metric | HFWA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.84 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 41.6% | 6/13 |
| Shares Outstanding | 41M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 57.4% | 6/20 |
| EPS Growth | 69.8% | 4/18 |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $204M | 2.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $7.32B | 86.9% of assets |
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Heritage Financial Corp /Wa/ (Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered): 33 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| HFWA Heritage Financial Corp /Wa/ | ▶ | $1.13B |
| FLG Flagstar Bank, National Association | ▼ | $4.60B |
| BBT Beacon Financial Corp | ▶ | $2.30B |
| NBBK Nb Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $958M |
| SMBC Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $773M |
| TCBX Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. | ▶ | $691M |
| GCBC Greene County Bancorp Inc | ▼ | $587M |
| HBCP Home Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $519M |
| PBFS Pioneer Bancorp, Inc./Md | ▼ | $440M |
| AVBC Avidia Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $439M |
| NECB Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc./Md/ | ▶ | $380M |
| TSBK Timberland Bancorp Inc | ▶ | $354M |
| FBLA Fb Bancorp, Inc. /Md/ | ▼ | $262M |
| RBKB Rhinebeck Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $201M |
| ECBK Ecb Bancorp, Inc. /Md/ | ▲ | $172M |
| SRBK Sr Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $148M |
| HYNE Hoyne Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $136M |
| WSBK Winchester Bancorp, Inc./Md/ | ▼ | $120M |
| BSBK Bogota Financial Corp. | ▼ | $116M |
| CULL Cullman Bancorp, Inc. /Md/ | ▼ | $97M |
| FNWB First Northwest Bancorp | ▶ | $91M |
| FMFG Farmers & Merchants Bancshares, Inc. | ▼ | $61M |
| TCBS Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. | ▼ | $49M |
| MBBC Marathon Bancorp, Inc. /Md/ | ▼ | $44M |
| QNTO Quaint Oak Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $38M |
| PFSB Pfs Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $34M |
| URSB Ursb Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $30M |
| GOVB Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc./Md/ | ▶ | $22M |
| MSBB Mercer Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $21M |
| PNSB Psb Financial, Inc. | ▼ | $19M |
| CSBA Csb Financial Inc. | ▼ | $19M |
| FBSI First Bancshares Inc /Mo/ | ▼ | N/A |
| VWFB Vwf Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
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On Oct. 16, 2026, HFWA is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
For HFWA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 8.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 14.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Heritage Financial Corp /Wa/ forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
33 issuers in our coverage, HFWA included, share the SEC industry code Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered. The largest are: Flagstar Bank, National Association (FLG), Beacon Financial Corp (BBT), Nb Bancorp, Inc. (NBBK), Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC), Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX), Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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