Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $691M. It ranks number 6 by market capitalization among the 31 Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For TCBX, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 27.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 13.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How TCBX ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | TCBX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $691M | 6/31 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.62x | 24/27 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03x | 12/31 |
| EPS | $3.91 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $40.27 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $13.75 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | TCBX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 11.1% | 5/27 |
| ROA | 1.1% | 5/25 |
| Net Margin | 32.5% | 5/27 |
| EBT Margin | 39.7% | 7/28 |
| Tax Rate | 18.2% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | TCBX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 9.04x | 10/33 |
| Financial Leverage | 10.04x | 9/31 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | TCBX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $33M | 10/28 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -23.4% | 22/22 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | TCBX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.03x | 13/25 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 5.7x | 5/25 |
Income Statement
| Metric | TCBX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $229M | 5/27 |
| Net Income | $74M | 3/27 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | TCBX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 17M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 30.7% | 9/20 |
| EPS Growth | 25.7% | 11/18 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $404M | 6.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $6.06B | 90.0% of assets |
TCBX quarterly financials and insider trading
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered): 33 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| TCBX Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. | ▲ | $691M |
| FLG Flagstar Bank, National Association | ▶ | $4.60B |
| BBT Beacon Financial Corp | ▶ | $2.30B |
| HFWA Heritage Financial Corp /Wa/ | ▶ | $1.13B |
| NBBK Nb Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $958M |
| SMBC Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $773M |
| GCBC Greene County Bancorp Inc | ▼ | $587M |
| HBCP Home Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $519M |
| PBFS Pioneer Bancorp, Inc./Md | ▶ | $440M |
| AVBC Avidia Bancorp, Inc. | ▲ | $439M |
| NECB Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc./Md/ | ▲ | $380M |
| TSBK Timberland Bancorp Inc | ▶ | $354M |
| FBLA Fb Bancorp, Inc. /Md/ | ▼ | $262M |
| RBKB Rhinebeck Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $201M |
| ECBK Ecb Bancorp, Inc. /Md/ | ▲ | $173M |
| SRBK Sr Bancorp, Inc. | ▲ | $148M |
| HYNE Hoyne Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $136M |
| WSBK Winchester Bancorp, Inc./Md/ | ▼ | $120M |
| BSBK Bogota Financial Corp. | ▶ | $116M |
| CULL Cullman Bancorp, Inc. /Md/ | ▼ | $96M |
| FNWB First Northwest Bancorp | ▶ | $92M |
| FMFG Farmers & Merchants Bancshares, Inc. | ▼ | $61M |
| TCBS Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. | ▼ | $50M |
| MBBC Marathon Bancorp, Inc. /Md/ | ▼ | $44M |
| QNTO Quaint Oak Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $38M |
| PFSB Pfs Bancorp, Inc. | ▲ | $34M |
| URSB Ursb Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $30M |
| GOVB Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc./Md/ | ▲ | $22M |
| MSBB Mercer Bancorp, Inc. | ▲ | $20M |
| PNSB Psb Financial, Inc. | ▼ | $19M |
| CSBA Csb Financial Inc. | ▼ | $19M |
| FBSI First Bancshares Inc /Mo/ | ▼ | N/A |
| VWFB Vwf Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
Where TCBX sits on the market map
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) stock news
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Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. stock predictions?
For TCBX, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 27.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 13.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. forecasts updated?
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s industry peers?
33 issuers in our coverage, TCBX included, share the SEC industry code Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered. The largest are: Flagstar Bank, National Association (FLG), Beacon Financial Corp (BBT), Heritage Financial Corp /Wa/ (HFWA), Nb Bancorp, Inc. (NBBK), Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC), Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.