Forget Zepbound: 3 newer drugs that could power Eli Lilly's next leg higher
Eli Lilly's greatest strength isn't Zepbound. It is the company's drug discovery engine.
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Rating · 90D
▼ Bearish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
Sign up free to reveal
30-day forecast
Total
Rank in coverage
Bottom 35%
of 5172 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
23.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$1.18T
mega-cap · #1 of 60 peers
Summary
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Eli Lilly & Co outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Eli Lilly & Co is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.18T. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 60 Pharmaceutical Preparations issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For LLY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 23.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -2.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, LLY included.
Follow LLY freePrice
LLY price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How LLY ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Pharmaceutical Preparations peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.18T | 1/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 42.18x | 12/32 |
| P/B Ratio | 120.39x | 2/42 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.49% | 9/10 |
| EPS | $29.80 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $10.44 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $84.63 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 83.4% | 15/35 |
| EBT Margin | 130.4% | 1/46 |
| Tax Rate | 20.5% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.35x | 45/59 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.00x | 30/43 |
| D/E Ratio | 3.36x | 7/48 |
| Working Capital | $16.93B | 1/59 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $28.08B | 6/59 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 156.8% | 4/33 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Receivables Turnover | 4.0x | 29/37 |
| Inventory Turnover | 0.8x | 30/35 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.7x | 33/41 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 92 days | 9/37 |
| Days Inventory | 463 days | 6/35 |
| Payables Period | 169 days | 12/25 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 387 days | 4/23 |
Income Statement
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $79.67B | 6/46 |
| R&D Expense | $14.60B | 8/58 |
| SG&A Expense | $12.24B | 9/40 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $13.22B | 13/36 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $6.15 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 20.6% | 9/10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 941M | – |
| EPS Growth | 94.8% | 2/24 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $64.67B | |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $8.95B | 20.4% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $20.08B | 45.7% of assets |
| Inventory | $16.79B | 38.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $33.00B | 75.2% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $41.63B | 94.8% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
LLY quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Pharmaceutical Preparations
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Eli Lilly & Co (Pharmaceutical Preparations): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| LLY Eli Lilly & Co | ▼ | $1.18T |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | ▼ | $615.87B |
| ABBV Abbvie Inc. | ▼ | $504.46B |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | ▶ | $360.08B |
| NVS Novartis Ag | ▼ | $287.41B |
| AZN Astrazeneca Plc | ▼ | $256.39B |
| ABT Abbott Laboratories | ▼ | $182.37B |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A S | ▼ | $172.56B |
| PFE Pfizer Inc | ▼ | $168.60B |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma | ▶ | $126.66B |
| BMY Bristol Myers Squibb Co | ▼ | $122.05B |
| GSK Gsk Plc | ▼ | $100.46B |
| SNY Sanofi | ▼ | $100.12B |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▼ | $81.76B |
| TAK Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd | ▼ | $61.45B |
| TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd | ▼ | $48.36B |
| ONC Beone Medicines Ltd. | ▲ | $41.96B |
| ZTS Zoetis Inc. | ▼ | $32.80B |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▶ | $31.02B |
| RPRX Royalty Pharma Plc | ▶ | $26.88B |
| ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. | ▲ | $24.22B |
| GMAB Genmab A/S | ▶ | $23.80B |
| UTHR United Therapeutics Corp | ▼ | $22.87B |
| VTRS Viatris Inc | ▼ | $21.43B |
| INSM Insmed Inc | ▶ | $21.02B |
| ASND Ascendis Pharma A/S | ▶ | $14.85B |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc | ▼ | $13.65B |
| BBIO Bridgebio Pharma, Inc. | ▶ | $12.98B |
| CORT Corcept Therapeutics Inc | ▲ | $11.91B |
| ELAN Elanco Animal Health Inc | ▶ | $11.77B |
| SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. | ▲ | $11.67B |
| RDY Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd | ▼ | $10.91B |
| BMRN Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc | ▶ | $10.58B |
| MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▼ | $10.39B |
| CYTK Cytokinetics Inc | ▲ | $8.61B |
| TGTX Tg Therapeutics, Inc. | ▶ | $8.56B |
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc | ▶ | $8.33B |
| AXSM Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $8.23B |
| ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $7.90B |
| ABVX Abivax S.A. | ▼ | $7.74B |
| IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc | ▲ | $7.14B |
| SYRE Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $7.05B |
| ALKS Alkermes Plc. | ▲ | $6.92B |
| PRAX Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc. | ▲ | $6.75B |
| KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, Plc | ▼ | $6.13B |
| AMRX Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▶ | $6.13B |
| RYTM Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $5.93B |
| LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc | ▼ | $5.89B |
| BLTE Belite Bio, Inc | ▲ | $5.62B |
| MIRM Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $5.20B |
| COGT Cogent Biosciences, Inc. | ▲ | $5.12B |
| PTCT Ptc Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $4.94B |
| ORKA Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $4.76B |
| ERAS Erasca, Inc. | ▲ | $4.68B |
| MANE Veradermics, Inc | ▲ | $4.55B |
| TVTX Travere Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $4.44B |
| EWTX Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $4.04B |
| DNTH Dianthus Therapeutics, Inc. /De/ | ▲ | $4.03B |
| INDV Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▼ | $3.83B |
| TNGX Tango Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $3.72B |
Where LLY sits on the market map
Life Sciences · Pharmaceutical Preparations
News
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) stock news
Eli Lilly's biggest shareholder is selling $347 million of stock. Should you sell too?
The Lilly Foundation is unloading 300,000 shares of the stock.
A $1,000 Investment in Eli Lilly Became $18,637. The Obesity Boom Changed Everything
Eli Lilly spent most of its 150-year history as a quiet insulin maker before a single drug reshuffled the entire obesity ...
FAQ
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Eli Lilly & Co outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Eli Lilly & Co stock predictions?
For LLY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 23.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -2.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Eli Lilly & Co forecasts updated?
Eli Lilly & Co forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Eli Lilly & Co's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, LLY included, share the SEC industry code Pharmaceutical Preparations. The largest are: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Abbvie Inc. (ABBV), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Novartis Ag (NVS), Astrazeneca Plc (AZN), Abbott Laboratories (ABT).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.