Eli Lilly just raised its 2026 revenue forecast by $5.5 billion. Is the stock still a buy?
The stock is expensive, but the potential market for GLP-1 drugs is likely much larger than forecast.
Model output · Signal date 2026-11-06
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
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90-day forecast
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Alpha
Rank in coverage
of 5150 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
34.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$1.28T
mega-cap · #1 of 60 peers
Summary
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Eli Lilly & Co every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Eli Lilly & Co is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.28T. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 60 Pharmaceutical Preparations issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For LLY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 34.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 6.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, LLY included.
Price
LLY price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-11-06
How LLY ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-09-30
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Pharmaceutical Preparations peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.28T | 1/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 44.29x | 11/32 |
| P/B Ratio | 130.62x | 2/42 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.47% | 9/10 |
| EPS | $30.81 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $10.45 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $91.91 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 83.6% | 15/36 |
| EBT Margin | 135.0% | 2/46 |
| Tax Rate | 20.7% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.39x | 46/58 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.00x | 32/43 |
| D/E Ratio | 3.36x | 7/47 |
| Working Capital | $18.27B | 1/58 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $30.64B | 5/59 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 90.8% | 5/34 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Receivables Turnover | 3.9x | 28/36 |
| Inventory Turnover | 0.8x | 31/35 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.7x | 33/41 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 93 days | 9/36 |
| Days Inventory | 469 days | 5/35 |
| Payables Period | 149 days | 10/24 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 413 days | 5/22 |
Income Statement
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $86.46B | 6/46 |
| R&D Expense | $15.38B | 8/58 |
| SG&A Expense | $12.62B | 9/40 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $14.15B | 13/37 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | LLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $6.36 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 20.6% | 9/10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 941M | – |
| EPS Growth | 50.7% | 8/24 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $65.26B | |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $4.88B | 11.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $22.09B | 50.3% of assets |
| Inventory | $18.19B | 41.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $33.00B | 75.2% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $41.20B | 93.8% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
LLY quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Pharmaceutical Preparations
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Eli Lilly & Co (Pharmaceutical Preparations): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| LLY Eli Lilly & Co | $1.28T | |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $664.95B | |
| ABBV Abbvie Inc. | $514.78B | |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $362.01B | |
| NVS Novartis Ag | $310.17B | |
| AZN Astrazeneca Plc | $288.97B | |
| ABT Abbott Laboratories | $191.15B | |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A S | $179.14B | |
| PFE Pfizer Inc | $167.51B | |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma | $137.50B | |
| BMY Bristol Myers Squibb Co | $127.02B | |
| SNY Sanofi | $115.97B | |
| GSK Gsk Plc | $101.70B | |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $93.11B | |
| TAK Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd | $66.19B | |
| TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd | $49.65B | |
| ONC Beone Medicines Ltd. | $46.26B | |
| GMAB Genmab A/S | $34.50B | |
| ZTS Zoetis Inc. | $33.93B | |
| RPRX Royalty Pharma Plc | $28.82B | |
| ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. | $26.45B | |
| INSM Insmed Inc | $25.10B | |
| UTHR United Therapeutics Corp | $24.11B | |
| VTRS Viatris Inc | $22.87B | |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $20.89B | |
| ASND Ascendis Pharma A/S | $16.86B | |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc | $15.24B | |
| BBIO Bridgebio Pharma, Inc. | $14.47B | |
| SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. | $13.03B | |
| ELAN Elanco Animal Health Inc | $12.86B | |
| RDY Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd | $12.44B | |
| BMRN Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc | $10.85B | |
| MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $9.24B | |
| TGTX Tg Therapeutics, Inc. | $9.20B | |
| SYRE Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. | $9.16B | |
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc | $8.54B | |
| ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $8.22B | |
| CORT Corcept Therapeutics Inc | $7.87B | |
| PRAX Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc. | $7.75B | |
| RYTM Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $7.73B | |
| ALKS Alkermes Plc. | $7.70B | |
| ABVX Abivax S.A. | $7.50B | |
| CYTK Cytokinetics Inc | $7.46B | |
| KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, Plc | $6.94B | |
| AXSM Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | $6.93B | |
| ORKA Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. | $6.81B | |
| IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc | $6.55B | |
| AMRX Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $6.43B | |
| MIRM Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $6.07B | |
| BLTE Belite Bio, Inc | $6.07B | |
| LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc | $5.98B | |
| MANE Veradermics, Inc | $5.80B | |
| SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $5.56B | |
| COGT Cogent Biosciences, Inc. | $5.49B | |
| PTCT Ptc Therapeutics, Inc. | $5.47B | |
| EWTX Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. | $4.89B | |
| DNTH Dianthus Therapeutics, Inc. /De/ | $4.64B | |
| ERAS Erasca, Inc. | $4.64B | |
| TVTX Travere Therapeutics, Inc. | $4.44B | |
| LEGN Legend Biotech Corp | $4.17B |
Where LLY sits on the market map
Life Sciences · Pharmaceutical Preparations
News
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) stock news
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FAQ
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Eli Lilly & Co every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Eli Lilly & Co stock predictions?
For LLY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 34.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 6.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Eli Lilly & Co forecasts updated?
Eli Lilly & Co forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are Eli Lilly & Co's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, LLY included, share the SEC industry code Pharmaceutical Preparations. The largest are: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Abbvie Inc. (ABBV), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Novartis Ag (NVS), Astrazeneca Plc (AZN), Abbott Laboratories (ABT).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.