Applied Optoelectronics stock tumbles despite Q3 earnings beat
Applied Optoelectronics Inc AAOI reported financial results for the third quarter after the close on Thursday. Here’s what ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-11-09
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Stock Forecast Nov. 9, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 9, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
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90-day forecast
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Alpha
Rank in coverage
of 5150 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
46.0%
Spearman, 358 dates
Market Cap
$4.24B
mid-cap · #38 of 60 peers
Summary
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $4.24B. It ranks number 38 by market capitalization among the 60 Semiconductors & Related Devices issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For AAOI, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 46.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-08-22 and 2026-08-11 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 46.0%, measured on 401 forecast dates between 2022-08-22 and 2026-10-09. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, AAOI included.
Price
AAOI price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-11-06
How AAOI ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-09-30
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Semiconductors & Related Devices peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AAOI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $4.24B | 38/60 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.89x | 49/55 |
| EPS | $-0.29 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $26.50 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $8.84 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AAOI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -1.5% | 35/42 |
| ROA | -1.1% | 34/42 |
| ROIC | -2.0% | 47/55 |
| Gross Margin | 28.8% | 45/56 |
| Operating Margin | -6.8% | 51/56 |
| Net Margin | -4.4% | 36/43 |
| EBT Margin | -4.9% | 49/56 |
| Tax Rate | 10.3% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | AAOI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.34x | 40/58 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.77x | 41/55 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.40x | 34/58 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.40x | 34/56 |
| Interest Coverage | -1.8x | 41/45 |
| Working Capital | $884M | 34/58 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AAOI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$106M | 54/57 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AAOI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.24x | 50/54 |
| Receivables Turnover | 1.8x | 52/52 |
| Inventory Turnover | 1.4x | 51/54 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 0.7x | 51/55 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 202 days | 1/52 |
| Days Inventory | 259 days | 4/54 |
| Payables Period | 339 days | 2/53 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 122 days | 30/49 |
Income Statement
| Metric | AAOI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $747M | 44/56 |
| Operating Income | -$51M | 50/56 |
| Net Income | -$33M | 35/43 |
| R&D Expense | $124M | 40/56 |
| SG&A Expense | $182M | 34/55 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $532M | 35/56 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AAOI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 85M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $1.54B | 49.2% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $605M | 19.3% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $414M | 13.2% of assets |
| Inventory | $378M | 12.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $894M | 28.5% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $166M | 5.3% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
AAOI quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Semiconductors & Related Devices
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (Semiconductors & Related Devices): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | $4.24B | |
| NVDA Nvidia Corp | $4.50T | |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $1.40T | |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc | $733.05B | |
| INTC Intel Corp | $299.13B | |
| AMAT Applied Materials Inc /De | $264.05B | |
| TXN Texas Instruments Inc | $253.44B | |
| ARM Arm Holdings Plc /Uk | $186.49B | |
| ADI Analog Devices Inc | $176.17B | |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $117.11B | |
| ASX Ase Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $69.62B | |
| NXPI Nxp Semiconductors N.V. | $61.61B | |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $58.50B | |
| STM Stmicroelectronics N.V. | $37.08B | |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Inc | $35.21B | |
| ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. | $33.09B | |
| ON On Semiconductor Corp | $24.65B | |
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | $24.48B | |
| CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | $22.65B | |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | $21.62B | |
| GFS Globalfoundries Inc. | $21.46B | |
| CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. | $21.30B | |
| MTSI Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $16.11B | |
| TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | $15.40B | |
| NXT Nextpower Inc. | $14.99B | |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corp | $14.92B | |
| SITM Sitime Corp | $12.54B | |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $12.37B | |
| SMTC Semtech Corp | $8.47B | |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | $8.13B | |
| RMBS Rambus Inc | $7.98B | |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.39B | |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $6.49B | |
| FORM Formfactor Inc | $6.34B | |
| CRUS Cirrus Logic, Inc. | $5.69B | |
| ALGM Allegro Microsystems, Inc. | $5.25B | |
| SYNA Synaptics Inc | $4.56B | |
| MXL Maxlinear, Inc | $4.48B | |
| ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | $3.77B | |
| DIOD Diodes Inc /Del/ | $3.56B | |
| KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc | $3.35B | |
| OSIS Osi Systems Inc | $3.01B | |
| IPGP Ipg Photonics Corp | $2.78B | |
| AMBA Ambarella Inc | $2.58B | |
| AXTI Axt Inc | $2.55B | |
| PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc. | $2.52B | |
| LASR Nlight, Inc. | $2.19B | |
| POWI Power Integrations Inc | $2.17B | |
| NVTS Navitas Semiconductor Corp | $2.12B | |
| UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. | $1.97B | |
| NLST Netlist Inc | $1.82B | |
| SEDG Solaredge Technologies, Inc. | $1.69B | |
| SHLS Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | $1.69B | |
| PLAB Photronics Inc | $1.50B | |
| HIMX Himax Technologies, Inc. | $1.48B | |
| WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. | $1.26B | |
| ICHR Ichor Holdings, Ltd. | $1.16B | |
| ARRY Array Technologies, Inc. | $902M | |
| POET Poet Technologies Inc. | $877M | |
| AIP Arteris, Inc. | $875M |
Where AAOI sits on the market map
Manufacturing · Semiconductors & Related Devices
News
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) stock news
Applied Optoelectronics Announces Equity Grants To Employees Under Inducement Plan
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAOI), a leading provider of advanced optical and HFC networking products that power ...
Applied Optoelectronics Earnings Call Signals Accelerating Growth
Detailed price information for Applied Optoelect (AAOI-Q) from The Globe and Mail including charting and trades.
FAQ
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. stock predictions?
For AAOI, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 46.0%, measured on 358 forecast dates between 2022-08-22 and 2026-08-11 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 46.0%, measured on 401 forecast dates between 2022-08-22 and 2026-10-09. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. forecasts updated?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 9, 2026.
Which companies are Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, AAOI included, share the SEC industry code Semiconductors & Related Devices. The largest are: Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Intel Corp (INTC), Applied Materials Inc /De (AMAT), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.