Nvidia Corp (NVDA) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, NVDA is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Nvidia Corp is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $5.24T. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 60 Semiconductors & Related Devices issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its ROE of 84.2% is the highest of the 45 peers that report one. Its Net Margin of 63.7% is the highest of the 45 peers that report one.
For NVDA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 50.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 23.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How NVDA ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Semiconductors & Related Devices peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | NVDA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $5.24T | 1/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 25.06x | 30/40 |
| P/B Ratio | 22.86x | 6/57 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.12% | 12/13 |
| EPS | $8.67 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $9.50 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $12.57 | – |
| FCF/Share | $5.27 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | NVDA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 84.2% | 1/45 |
| ROA | 60.2% | 1/44 |
| ROIC | 71.3% | 1/53 |
| Gross Margin | 74.7% | 4/57 |
| Operating Margin | 65.2% | 1/57 |
| Net Margin | 63.7% | 1/45 |
| EBT Margin | 75.8% | 1/57 |
| Tax Rate | 16.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | NVDA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 4.59x | 19/55 |
| Quick Ratio | 3.85x | 16/54 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.40x | 32/59 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.40x | 32/57 |
| Interest Coverage | 132.1x | 7/45 |
| Working Capital | $154.39B | 1/55 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | NVDA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $134.36B | 1/57 |
| Free Cash Flow | $127.01B | 1/52 |
| Capital Spending | -$7.35B | 51/52 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 74.4% | 9/46 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 76.3% | 8/41 |
| FCF/Sales | 41.9% | 3/52 |
| CapEx/Sales | 2.4% | 39/52 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | NVDA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.95x | 3/54 |
| Receivables Turnover | 4.8x | 38/49 |
| Inventory Turnover | 2.4x | 28/53 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 21.2x | 7/52 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 76 days | 12/49 |
| Days Inventory | 150 days | 26/53 |
| Payables Period | 72 days | 14/50 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 155 days | 19/46 |
Income Statement
| Metric | NVDA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $302.97B | 1/56 |
| Operating Income | $197.58B | 1/57 |
| Net Income | $192.88B | 1/45 |
| R&D Expense | $23.59B | 1/56 |
| SG&A Expense | $5.07B | 1/55 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $76.73B | 1/57 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | NVDA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.27 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 3.1% | 13/13 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24100M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 134.7% | 5/27 |
| EPS Growth | 158.8% | 5/30 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $197.41B | 61.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $22.44B | 7.0% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $63.06B | 19.7% of assets |
| Inventory | $31.57B | 9.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $91.29B | 28.5% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $27.96B | 8.7% of assets |
NVDA quarterly financials and insider trading
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Nvidia Corp (Semiconductors & Related Devices): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA Nvidia Corp | ▶ | $5.24T |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | ▶ | $1.57T |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc | ▶ | $863.17B |
| INTC Intel Corp | ▲ | $481.05B |
| AMAT Applied Materials Inc /De | ▶ | $324.81B |
| TXN Texas Instruments Inc | ▼ | $254.91B |
| ARM Arm Holdings Plc /Uk | ▲ | $243.29B |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | ▲ | $211.54B |
| ADI Analog Devices Inc | ▼ | $191.62B |
| ASX Ase Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | ▲ | $86.49B |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | ▼ | $61.39B |
| NXPI Nxp Semiconductors N.V. | ▼ | $58.16B |
| ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. | ▲ | $49.59B |
| STM Stmicroelectronics N.V. | ▶ | $41.42B |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Inc | ▶ | $40.32B |
| CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | ▲ | $31.90B |
| CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. | ▶ | $30.22B |
| ON On Semiconductor Corp | ▶ | $28.69B |
| GFS Globalfoundries Inc. | ▶ | $25.93B |
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | ▼ | $25.02B |
| TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | ▲ | $23.53B |
| MTSI Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $20.73B |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | ▶ | $18.55B |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corp | ▶ | $15.21B |
| SITM Sitime Corp | ▲ | $15.08B |
| SMTC Semtech Corp | ▲ | $13.43B |
| NXT Nextpower Inc. | ▼ | $12.66B |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | ▲ | $11.90B |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | ▶ | $10.34B |
| QRVO Qorvo, Inc. | ▲ | $10.05B |
| RMBS Rambus Inc | ▶ | $10.00B |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | ▲ | $9.09B |
| FORM Formfactor Inc | ▶ | $8.20B |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | ▼ | $7.38B |
| MXL Maxlinear, Inc | ▲ | $7.09B |
| AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | ▶ | $6.39B |
| ALGM Allegro Microsystems, Inc. | ▶ | $5.89B |
| CRUS Cirrus Logic, Inc. | ▲ | $5.41B |
| SYNA Synaptics Inc | ▲ | $4.60B |
| KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc | ▲ | $4.35B |
| ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | ▶ | $4.00B |
| DIOD Diodes Inc /Del/ | ▼ | $3.82B |
| AXTI Axt Inc | ▶ | $3.38B |
| PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc. | ▲ | $3.17B |
| IPGP Ipg Photonics Corp | ▼ | $3.14B |
| OSIS Osi Systems Inc | ▼ | $3.13B |
| AMBA Ambarella Inc | ▲ | $2.72B |
| UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $2.53B |
| POWI Power Integrations Inc | ▶ | $2.51B |
| NVTS Navitas Semiconductor Corp | ▼ | $2.18B |
| NLST Netlist Inc | ▲ | $2.07B |
| LASR Nlight, Inc. | ▼ | $2.05B |
| HIMX Himax Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $2.03B |
| SEDG Solaredge Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $1.93B |
| PLAB Photronics Inc | ▼ | $1.68B |
| ICHR Ichor Holdings, Ltd. | ▶ | $1.58B |
| BRKH Blaize Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $1.45B |
| WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. | ▶ | $1.37B |
| SHLS Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | ▶ | $1.31B |
| AMBQ Ambiq Micro, Inc. | ▲ | $1.26B |
Where NVDA sits on the market map
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) stock news
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Nvidia Corp (NVDA) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Nvidia Corp (NVDA) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, NVDA is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Nvidia Corp stock predictions?
For NVDA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 50.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 23.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Nvidia Corp forecasts updated?
Nvidia Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Nvidia Corp's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, NVDA included, share the SEC industry code Semiconductors & Related Devices. The largest are: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Intel Corp (INTC), Applied Materials Inc /De (AMAT), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (ARM).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.