Semtech Corp (SMTC) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Semtech Corp (SMTC) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Semtech Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Semtech Corp is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $12.76B. It ranks number 26 by market capitalization among the 60 Semiconductors & Related Devices issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For SMTC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 21.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 21.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, SMTC included.
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How SMTC ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Semtech Corp (SMTC) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Semiconductors & Related Devices peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SMTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $12.76B | 26/60 |
| P/B Ratio | 22.26x | 6/57 |
| EPS | $-0.41 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $6.14 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $11.68 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.86 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SMTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -6.3% | 42/45 |
| ROA | -2.5% | 39/44 |
| ROIC | 1.9% | 39/53 |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | 23/57 |
| Operating Margin | 2.0% | 41/57 |
| Net Margin | -3.2% | 38/45 |
| EBT Margin | -2.0% | 44/57 |
| Tax Rate | -51.6% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | SMTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.37x | 42/55 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.62x | 42/54 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.51x | 7/59 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.51x | 7/57 |
| Interest Coverage | 33.7x | 14/45 |
| Working Capital | $375M | 48/55 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SMTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $190M | 33/57 |
| Free Cash Flow | $173M | 27/52 |
| Capital Spending | -$16M | 8/52 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 120.6% | 5/46 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 35.7% | 16/41 |
| FCF/Sales | 15.9% | 24/52 |
| CapEx/Sales | 1.5% | 47/52 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | SMTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.76x | 8/54 |
| Receivables Turnover | 6.2x | 26/49 |
| Inventory Turnover | 2.6x | 25/53 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 10.2x | 15/52 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 59 days | 23/49 |
| Days Inventory | 142 days | 29/53 |
Income Statement
| Metric | SMTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.09B | 34/56 |
| Operating Income | $22M | 39/57 |
| Net Income | -$36M | 39/45 |
| R&D Expense | $206M | 32/56 |
| SG&A Expense | $242M | 28/55 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $528M | 35/57 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SMTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 93M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -250.6% | 27/27 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $649M | 45.1% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $163M | 11.3% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $175M | 12.1% of assets |
| Inventory | $205M | 14.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $866M | 60.2% of assets |
SMTC quarterly financials and insider trading
Semtech Corp (SMTC) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Semtech Corp (Semiconductors & Related Devices): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SMTC Semtech Corp | ▲ | $12.76B |
| NVDA Nvidia Corp | ▶ | $5.16T |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | ▶ | $1.57T |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc | ▶ | $863.17B |
| INTC Intel Corp | ▲ | $453.20B |
| AMAT Applied Materials Inc /De | ▶ | $324.81B |
| TXN Texas Instruments Inc | ▼ | $252.49B |
| ARM Arm Holdings Plc /Uk | ▲ | $243.29B |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | ▲ | $199.78B |
| ADI Analog Devices Inc | ▼ | $191.62B |
| ASX Ase Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | ▲ | $86.49B |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | ▼ | $59.51B |
| NXPI Nxp Semiconductors N.V. | ▼ | $57.72B |
| ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. | ▲ | $49.59B |
| STM Stmicroelectronics N.V. | ▶ | $40.34B |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Inc | ▶ | $40.10B |
| CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | ▲ | $31.90B |
| CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. | ▶ | $30.22B |
| ON On Semiconductor Corp | ▶ | $28.04B |
| GFS Globalfoundries Inc. | ▶ | $25.93B |
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | ▼ | $24.14B |
| TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | ▲ | $21.94B |
| MTSI Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $20.03B |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | ▶ | $18.55B |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corp | ▶ | $14.72B |
| SITM Sitime Corp | ▲ | $14.20B |
| NXT Nextpower Inc. | ▼ | $12.14B |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | ▲ | $11.99B |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | ▶ | $10.34B |
| QRVO Qorvo, Inc. | ▲ | $10.05B |
| RMBS Rambus Inc | ▶ | $9.39B |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | ▲ | $8.24B |
| FORM Formfactor Inc | ▶ | $8.20B |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | ▼ | $7.37B |
| MXL Maxlinear, Inc | ▲ | $6.47B |
| AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | ▶ | $6.39B |
| ALGM Allegro Microsystems, Inc. | ▶ | $5.89B |
| CRUS Cirrus Logic, Inc. | ▲ | $5.41B |
| SYNA Synaptics Inc | ▲ | $4.58B |
| KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc | ▲ | $4.11B |
| ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | ▶ | $4.00B |
| DIOD Diodes Inc /Del/ | ▼ | $3.82B |
| AXTI Axt Inc | ▶ | $3.38B |
| OSIS Osi Systems Inc | ▼ | $3.11B |
| IPGP Ipg Photonics Corp | ▼ | $3.02B |
| PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc. | ▲ | $2.93B |
| AMBA Ambarella Inc | ▲ | $2.72B |
| POWI Power Integrations Inc | ▶ | $2.49B |
| UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $2.31B |
| NLST Netlist Inc | ▲ | $2.07B |
| HIMX Himax Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $2.03B |
| NVTS Navitas Semiconductor Corp | ▼ | $1.97B |
| LASR Nlight, Inc. | ▼ | $1.94B |
| SEDG Solaredge Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $1.93B |
| PLAB Photronics Inc | ▼ | $1.62B |
| ICHR Ichor Holdings, Ltd. | ▶ | $1.58B |
| BRKH Blaize Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $1.45B |
| WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. | ▶ | $1.23B |
| SHLS Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | ▲ | $1.21B |
| AMBQ Ambiq Micro, Inc. | ▲ | $1.21B |
Where SMTC sits on the market map
Semtech Corp (SMTC) stock news
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Semtech Corp (SMTC) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Semtech Corp (SMTC) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Semtech Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Semtech Corp stock predictions?
For SMTC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 21.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 21.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Semtech Corp forecasts updated?
Semtech Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Semtech Corp's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, SMTC included, share the SEC industry code Semiconductors & Related Devices. The largest are: Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Intel Corp (INTC), Applied Materials Inc /De (AMAT), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.