Arm Holdings plc (ARM) is Positioned as Specialized Computing Demand Outlasts Near-Term Shortages
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Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (ARM) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
▲ Bullish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Top 35%
of 5184 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
-22.0%
Spearman, 290 dates
Market Cap
$243.29B
mega-cap · #7 of 60 peers
Summary
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (ARM) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Arm Holdings Plc /Uk outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $243.29B. It ranks number 7 by market capitalization among the 60 Semiconductors & Related Devices issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its Gross Margin of 97.5% is the highest of the 57 peers that report one.
For ARM, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -22.0%, measured on 290 forecast dates between 2023-11-10 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -7.0%, measured on 333 forecast dates between 2023-11-10 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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ARM price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How ARM ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (ARM) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Semiconductors & Related Devices peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | ARM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $243.29B | 7/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 232.45x | 4/40 |
| P/B Ratio | 28.19x | 4/57 |
| EPS | $0.98 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $8.08 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $4.83 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.41 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | ARM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 12.1% | 24/45 |
| ROA | 9.3% | 17/44 |
| ROIC | 8.8% | 25/53 |
| Gross Margin | 97.5% | 1/57 |
| Operating Margin | 17.0% | 19/57 |
| Net Margin | 20.2% | 15/45 |
| EBT Margin | 24.5% | 17/57 |
| Tax Rate | 17.4% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | ARM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 5.25x | 14/55 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.30x | 37/59 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.30x | 38/57 |
| Working Capital | $5.13B | 11/55 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | ARM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.09B | 13/57 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.51B | 11/52 |
| Capital Spending | -$588M | 42/52 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 105.5% | 7/46 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 123.1% | 6/41 |
| FCF/Sales | 29.2% | 6/52 |
| CapEx/Sales | 11.4% | 9/52 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | ARM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.46x | 41/54 |
| Receivables Turnover | 4.6x | 40/49 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 5.6x | 27/52 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 79 days | 10/49 |
Income Statement
| Metric | ARM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $5.16B | 15/56 |
| Operating Income | $877M | 14/57 |
| Net Income | $1.04B | 12/45 |
| R&D Expense | $2.96B | 6/56 |
| SG&A Expense | $1.17B | 9/55 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $127M | 53/57 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | ARM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 1068M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 49.4% | 11/27 |
| EPS Growth | 48.5% | 13/30 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $6.34B | 56.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $3.06B | 27.3% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $1.12B | 10.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $2.57B | 22.9% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
ARM quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Semiconductors & Related Devices
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (ARM) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (Semiconductors & Related Devices): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| ARM Arm Holdings Plc /Uk | ▲ | $243.29B |
| NVDA Nvidia Corp | ▶ | $5.16T |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | ▶ | $1.57T |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc | ▶ | $863.17B |
| INTC Intel Corp | ▲ | $453.20B |
| AMAT Applied Materials Inc /De | ▶ | $324.81B |
| TXN Texas Instruments Inc | ▼ | $252.49B |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | ▲ | $199.78B |
| ADI Analog Devices Inc | ▼ | $191.62B |
| ASX Ase Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | ▲ | $86.49B |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | ▼ | $59.51B |
| NXPI Nxp Semiconductors N.V. | ▼ | $57.72B |
| ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. | ▲ | $49.59B |
| STM Stmicroelectronics N.V. | ▶ | $40.34B |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Inc | ▶ | $40.10B |
| CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | ▲ | $31.90B |
| CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. | ▶ | $30.22B |
| ON On Semiconductor Corp | ▶ | $28.04B |
| GFS Globalfoundries Inc. | ▶ | $25.93B |
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | ▼ | $24.14B |
| TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | ▲ | $21.94B |
| MTSI Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $20.03B |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | ▶ | $18.55B |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corp | ▶ | $14.72B |
| SITM Sitime Corp | ▲ | $14.20B |
| SMTC Semtech Corp | ▲ | $12.76B |
| NXT Nextpower Inc. | ▼ | $12.14B |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | ▲ | $11.99B |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | ▶ | $10.34B |
| QRVO Qorvo, Inc. | ▲ | $10.05B |
| RMBS Rambus Inc | ▶ | $9.39B |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | ▲ | $8.24B |
| FORM Formfactor Inc | ▶ | $8.20B |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | ▼ | $7.37B |
| MXL Maxlinear, Inc | ▲ | $6.47B |
| AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | ▶ | $6.39B |
| ALGM Allegro Microsystems, Inc. | ▶ | $5.89B |
| CRUS Cirrus Logic, Inc. | ▲ | $5.41B |
| SYNA Synaptics Inc | ▲ | $4.58B |
| KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc | ▲ | $4.11B |
| ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | ▶ | $4.00B |
| DIOD Diodes Inc /Del/ | ▼ | $3.82B |
| AXTI Axt Inc | ▶ | $3.38B |
| OSIS Osi Systems Inc | ▼ | $3.11B |
| IPGP Ipg Photonics Corp | ▼ | $3.02B |
| PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc. | ▲ | $2.93B |
| AMBA Ambarella Inc | ▲ | $2.72B |
| POWI Power Integrations Inc | ▶ | $2.49B |
| UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $2.31B |
| HIMX Himax Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $2.03B |
| NLST Netlist Inc | ▲ | $2.00B |
| NVTS Navitas Semiconductor Corp | ▼ | $1.97B |
| LASR Nlight, Inc. | ▼ | $1.94B |
| SEDG Solaredge Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $1.93B |
| PLAB Photronics Inc | ▼ | $1.62B |
| ICHR Ichor Holdings, Ltd. | ▶ | $1.58B |
| BRKH Blaize Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $1.45B |
| WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. | ▶ | $1.23B |
| SHLS Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | ▲ | $1.21B |
| AMBQ Ambiq Micro, Inc. | ▲ | $1.21B |
Where ARM sits on the market map
Manufacturing · Semiconductors & Related Devices
News
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (ARM) stock news
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FAQ
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (ARM) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Arm Holdings Plc /Uk (ARM) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Arm Holdings Plc /Uk outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Arm Holdings Plc /Uk stock predictions?
For ARM, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -22.0%, measured on 290 forecast dates between 2023-11-10 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -7.0%, measured on 333 forecast dates between 2023-11-10 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Arm Holdings Plc /Uk forecasts updated?
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Arm Holdings Plc /Uk's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, ARM included, share the SEC industry code Semiconductors & Related Devices. The largest are: Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Intel Corp (INTC), Applied Materials Inc /De (AMAT), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.