Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, BABA is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $253.06B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 60 Services-Business Services, NEC issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For BABA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -11.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 5.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How BABA ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Services-Business Services, NEC peers listed below that report each metric. Statement values were filed in CNY and are shown converted to USD (flows at the trailing twelve-month average rate, balances at the balance-sheet date rate).
Valuation & Market
| Metric | BABA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $253.06B | 3/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 76.78x | 8/46 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65x | 37/47 |
| EPS | $1.42 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $66.30 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | BABA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 2.5% | 33/44 |
| Gross Margin | 40.9% | 26/41 |
| Operating Margin | 8.5% | 31/51 |
| EBT Margin | 15.7% | 19/53 |
| Tax Rate | 20.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | BABA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.28x | 30/55 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.74x | 41/51 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.80x | 36/47 |
| Interest Coverage | 5.1x | 25/48 |
| Working Capital | $19.48B | 1/55 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | BABA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $9.68B | 7/54 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | BABA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Payables Period | 37 days | 12/34 |
Income Statement
| Metric | BABA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | $5.01B | 7/52 |
| R&D Expense | $4.19B | 1/26 |
| SG&A Expense | $17.49B | 1/42 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $34.74B | 2/42 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | BABA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 2319M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions, converted from CNY)
| Total Current Assets | $88.53B | 32.0% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $19.07B | 6.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $5.22B | 1.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $113.54B | 41.0% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $65.44B | 23.6% of assets |
BABA quarterly financials and insider trading
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Services-Business Services, NEC): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | ▶ | $253.06B |
| V Visa Inc. | ▶ | $739.03B |
| MA Mastercard Inc | ▼ | $540.87B |
| ACN Accenture Plc | ▶ | $153.38B |
| UBER Uber Technologies, Inc | ▶ | $143.69B |
| PDD Pdd Holdings Inc. | ▼ | $116.09B |
| MELI Mercadolibre Inc | ▶ | $92.98B |
| DASH Doordash, Inc. | ▶ | $81.96B |
| RELX Relx Plc | ▼ | $71.05B |
| EBAY Ebay Inc | ▼ | $53.52B |
| PYPL Paypal Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $53.05B |
| MSCI Msci Inc. | ▼ | $41.37B |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | ▼ | $26.25B |
| TCOM Trip.Com Group Ltd | ▼ | $26.21B |
| FISV Fiserv Inc | ▼ | $25.29B |
| GPN Global Payments Inc | ▼ | $22.14B |
| BR Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | ▼ | $19.97B |
| FIS Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. | ▼ | $18.57B |
| KSPI Joint Stock Co Kaspi.Kz | ▶ | $17.73B |
| FICO Fair Isaac Corp | ▲ | $16.66B |
| RBA Rb Global Inc. | ▼ | $15.61B |
| CSGP Costar Group, Inc. | ▶ | $13.09B |
| AKAM Akamai Technologies Inc | ▲ | $12.62B |
| GRAB Grab Holdings Ltd | ▶ | $12.03B |
| CART Maplebear Inc. | ▶ | $11.54B |
| WSE Wise Group Plc | ▶ | $11.19B |
| ETSY Etsy Inc | ▲ | $7.81B |
| HQY Healthequity, Inc. | ▼ | $7.61B |
| Z Zillow Group, Inc. | ▲ | $6.93B |
| ANDG Andersen Group Inc. | ▲ | $6.58B |
| LYFT Lyft, Inc. | ▶ | $6.37B |
| EXLS Exlservice Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $6.28B |
| WEX Wex Inc. | ▼ | $6.20B |
| MBGL Mobility Global Inc. | ▶ | $5.51B |
| XMTR Xometry, Inc. | ▲ | $5.21B |
| RELY Remitly Global, Inc. | ▲ | $5.11B |
| AMTM Amentum Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $4.77B |
| DLO Dlocal Ltd | ▶ | $4.33B |
| SEZL Sezzle Inc. | ▶ | $4.30B |
| PAY Paymentus Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $3.97B |
| TNET Trinet Group, Inc. | ▼ | $3.25B |
| MMS Maximus, Inc. | ▼ | $3.22B |
| FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. | ▶ | $3.11B |
| CBZ Cbiz, Inc. | ▼ | $2.97B |
| PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | ▼ | $2.41B |
| TIC Tic Solutions, Inc. | ▶ | $1.89B |
| ACVA Acv Auctions Inc. | ▲ | $1.78B |
| CNXC Concentrix Corp | ▲ | $1.70B |
| LQDT Liquidity Services Inc | ▼ | $1.37B |
| NUTX Nutex Health Inc. | ▲ | $1.31B |
| RDWR Radware Ltd | ▲ | $1.17B |
| RSKD Riskified Ltd. | ▲ | $1.09B |
| QNST Quinstreet, Inc | ▲ | $932M |
| PAYS Paysign, Inc. | ▲ | $836M |
| CASS Cass Information Systems Inc | ▶ | $700M |
| PHR Phreesia, Inc. | ▶ | $679M |
| PRTH Priority Technology Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $645M |
| MAX Mediaalpha, Inc. | ▲ | $609M |
| CTEV Claritev Corp | ▲ | $375M |
| RMNI Rimini Street, Inc. | ▲ | $374M |
Where BABA sits on the market map
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) stock news
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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, BABA is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock predictions?
For BABA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -11.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 5.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Alibaba Group Holding Ltd forecasts updated?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, BABA included, share the SEC industry code Services-Business Services, NEC. The largest are: Visa Inc. (V), Mastercard Inc (MA), Accenture Plc (ACN), Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER), Pdd Holdings Inc. (PDD), Mercadolibre Inc (MELI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.