First Merchants Corp (FRME) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
First Merchants Corp (FRME) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks First Merchants Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
First Merchants Corp is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.29B. It ranks number 33 by market capitalization among the 60 National Commercial Banks issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For FRME, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 31.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 14.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How FRME ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
First Merchants Corp (FRME) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the National Commercial Banks peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | FRME | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.29B | 33/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 11.68x | 35/58 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.86x | 56/59 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.72% | 9/51 |
| EPS | $3.39 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $46.16 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $11.02 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | FRME | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4% | 47/55 |
| ROA | 0.9% | 36/49 |
| Net Margin | 31.2% | 19/54 |
| EBT Margin | 35.0% | 38/59 |
| Tax Rate | 10.8% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | FRME | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 6.88x | 45/60 |
| Financial Leverage | 7.88x | 40/52 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FRME | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $281M | 27/60 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 4.3% | 40/54 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | FRME | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.03x | 32/49 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 4.4x | 28/52 |
Income Statement
| Metric | FRME | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $638M | 32/57 |
| Net Income | $199M | 28/55 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | FRME | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.47 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 43.4% | 12/50 |
| Shares Outstanding | 58M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -4.8% | 47/53 |
| EPS Growth | -4.5% | 45/55 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $98M | 0.5% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $18.40B | 87.3% of assets |
FRME quarterly financials and insider trading
First Merchants Corp (FRME) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as First Merchants Corp (National Commercial Banks): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| FRME First Merchants Corp | ▼ | $2.29B |
| JPM Jpmorgan Chase & Co | ▶ | $903.04B |
| BAC Bank Of America Corp /De/ | ▲ | $358.24B |
| WFC Wells Fargo & Company/Mn | ▶ | $253.62B |
| C Citigroup Inc | ▲ | $222.33B |
| UBS Ubs Group Ag | ▶ | $159.33B |
| MFG Mizuho Financial Group Inc | ▶ | $126.76B |
| COF Capital One Financial Corp | ▶ | $123.76B |
| USB Us Bancorp \De\ | ▶ | $91.50B |
| PNC Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc. | ▶ | $86.73B |
| TFC Truist Financial Corp | ▼ | $57.50B |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Inc /Md/ | ▲ | $30.85B |
| RF Regions Financial Corp | ▶ | $23.39B |
| KEY Keycorp /New/ | ▲ | $21.33B |
| FHN First Horizon Corp | ▶ | $10.84B |
| UMBF Umb Financial Corp | ▼ | $9.96B |
| ONB Old National Bancorp /In/ | ▶ | $9.78B |
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | ▼ | $9.64B |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association /Ut/ | ▶ | $9.25B |
| BOKF Bok Financial Corp | ▼ | $7.59B |
| VLY Valley National Bancorp | ▶ | $7.00B |
| FNB Fnb Corp/Pa/ | ▶ | $6.08B |
| FULT Fulton Financial Corp | ▼ | $4.28B |
| WSFS Wsfs Financial Corp | ▼ | $3.90B |
| BANF Bancfirst Corp /Ok/ | ▼ | $3.66B |
| WSBC Wesbanco Inc | ▶ | $3.57B |
| NIC Nicolet Bankshares Inc | ▼ | $3.43B |
| FFBC First Financial Bancorp /Oh/ | ▼ | $3.30B |
| PRK Park National Corp /Oh/ | ▶ | $3.23B |
| SFNC Simmons First National Corp | ▶ | $3.19B |
| BANC Banc Of California, Inc. | ▲ | $2.71B |
| NBTB Nbt Bancorp Inc | ▼ | $2.64B |
| TRMK Trustmark Corp | ▶ | $2.61B |
| NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | ▼ | $2.19B |
| WAFD Wafd Inc | ▲ | $2.16B |
| FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corp /Pa/ | ▼ | $2.06B |
| TBBK Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $2.02B |
| CHCO City Holding Co | ▼ | $1.99B |
| FSUN Firstsun Capital Bancorp | ▶ | $1.77B |
| HOPE Hope Bancorp Inc | ▶ | $1.72B |
| DCOM Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. /Ny/ | ▶ | $1.71B |
| NBHC National Bank Holdings Corp | ▶ | $1.69B |
| BFC Bank First Corp | ▼ | $1.64B |
| OCFC Oceanfirst Financial Corp | ▶ | $1.53B |
| CASH Pathward Financial, Inc. | ▶ | $1.51B |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | ▼ | $1.42B |
| BHRB Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. | ▼ | $1.41B |
| AMTB Amerant Bancorp Inc. | ▶ | $1.13B |
| FMCB Farmers & Merchants Bancorp | ▼ | $1.00B |
| CAC Camden National Corp | ▶ | $948M |
| HAFC Hanmi Financial Corp | ▶ | $923M |
| SMBK Smartfinancial Inc. | ▶ | $866M |
| ALRS Alerus Financial Corp | ▲ | $780M |
| FISI Financial Institutions Inc | ▶ | $775M |
| SHBI Shore Bancshares Inc | ▶ | $753M |
| BCAL California Bancorp \ Ca | ▶ | $700M |
| PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp. | ▶ | $684M |
| CARE Carter Bankshares, Inc. | ▼ | $670M |
| CBNK Capital Bancorp Inc | ▶ | $645M |
| SFST Southern First Bancshares Inc | ▶ | $567M |
Where FRME sits on the market map
First Merchants Corp (FRME) stock news
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First Merchants Corp (FRME) stock forecast FAQ
What is the First Merchants Corp (FRME) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks First Merchants Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are First Merchants Corp stock predictions?
For FRME, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 31.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 14.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are First Merchants Corp forecasts updated?
First Merchants Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are First Merchants Corp's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, FRME included, share the SEC industry code National Commercial Banks. The largest are: Jpmorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Bank Of America Corp /De/ (BAC), Wells Fargo & Company/Mn (WFC), Citigroup Inc (C), Ubs Group Ag (UBS), Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MFG).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.