Keycorp /New/ (KEY) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Keycorp /New/ (KEY) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Keycorp /New/ outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Keycorp /New/ is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $21.28B. It ranks number 13 by market capitalization among the 60 National Commercial Banks issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For KEY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 31.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 27.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.7%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How KEY ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Keycorp /New/ (KEY) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the National Commercial Banks peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | KEY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $21.28B | 13/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 12.39x | 24/58 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.17x | 39/59 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.90% | 2/51 |
| EPS | $1.61 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $17.03 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $7.33 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.12 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | KEY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| EBT Margin | 73.8% | 2/59 |
| Tax Rate | 20.6% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | KEY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 9.30x | 15/60 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | KEY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.31B | 12/60 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.20B | 5/43 |
| Capital Spending | -$112M | 37/43 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -18.9% | 47/54 |
| FCF Growth YoY | -22.3% | 36/41 |
| FCF/Sales | 15.3% | 42/43 |
| CapEx/Sales | 1.4% | 32/43 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | KEY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 12.6x | 7/52 |
Income Statement
| Metric | KEY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $7.82B | 10/57 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | KEY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.98 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 60.9% | 3/50 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1067M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.71B | 0.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $168.99B | 90.3% of assets |
KEY quarterly financials and insider trading
Keycorp /New/ (KEY) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Keycorp /New/ (National Commercial Banks): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| KEY Keycorp /New/ | ▲ | $21.28B |
| JPM Jpmorgan Chase & Co | ▲ | $891.90B |
| BAC Bank Of America Corp /De/ | ▲ | $358.24B |
| WFC Wells Fargo & Company/Mn | ▶ | $250.24B |
| C Citigroup Inc | ▲ | $222.33B |
| UBS Ubs Group Ag | ▼ | $159.66B |
| MFG Mizuho Financial Group Inc | ▶ | $127.39B |
| COF Capital One Financial Corp | ▼ | $123.76B |
| USB Us Bancorp \De\ | ▶ | $89.42B |
| PNC Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc. | ▶ | $85.75B |
| TFC Truist Financial Corp | ▼ | $56.89B |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Inc /Md/ | ▲ | $30.85B |
| RF Regions Financial Corp | ▲ | $23.27B |
| FHN First Horizon Corp | ▶ | $10.84B |
| UMBF Umb Financial Corp | ▼ | $10.01B |
| ONB Old National Bancorp /In/ | ▶ | $9.77B |
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | ▶ | $9.64B |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association /Ut/ | ▶ | $9.20B |
| BOKF Bok Financial Corp | ▶ | $7.59B |
| VLY Valley National Bancorp | ▲ | $7.05B |
| FNB Fnb Corp/Pa/ | ▶ | $6.08B |
| FULT Fulton Financial Corp | ▶ | $4.28B |
| WSFS Wsfs Financial Corp | ▶ | $3.90B |
| BANF Bancfirst Corp /Ok/ | ▶ | $3.66B |
| WSBC Wesbanco Inc | ▶ | $3.55B |
| NIC Nicolet Bankshares Inc | ▶ | $3.45B |
| FFBC First Financial Bancorp /Oh/ | ▼ | $3.30B |
| SFNC Simmons First National Corp | ▶ | $3.22B |
| PRK Park National Corp /Oh/ | ▶ | $3.22B |
| BANC Banc Of California, Inc. | ▲ | $2.71B |
| NBTB Nbt Bancorp Inc | ▶ | $2.63B |
| TRMK Trustmark Corp | ▶ | $2.61B |
| FRME First Merchants Corp | ▶ | $2.29B |
| NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | ▶ | $2.18B |
| WAFD Wafd Inc | ▲ | $2.18B |
| FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corp /Pa/ | ▶ | $2.06B |
| TBBK Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $2.00B |
| CHCO City Holding Co | ▶ | $1.99B |
| FSUN Firstsun Capital Bancorp | ▶ | $1.77B |
| DCOM Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. /Ny/ | ▲ | $1.71B |
| HOPE Hope Bancorp Inc | ▲ | $1.71B |
| NBHC National Bank Holdings Corp | ▶ | $1.68B |
| BFC Bank First Corp | ▼ | $1.64B |
| OCFC Oceanfirst Financial Corp | ▶ | $1.54B |
| CASH Pathward Financial, Inc. | ▶ | $1.51B |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | ▶ | $1.41B |
| BHRB Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. | ▼ | $1.41B |
| AMTB Amerant Bancorp Inc. | ▲ | $1.13B |
| FMCB Farmers & Merchants Bancorp | ▶ | $993M |
| CAC Camden National Corp | ▲ | $948M |
| HAFC Hanmi Financial Corp | ▶ | $923M |
| SMBK Smartfinancial Inc. | ▲ | $858M |
| ALRS Alerus Financial Corp | ▲ | $780M |
| FISI Financial Institutions Inc | ▶ | $775M |
| SHBI Shore Bancshares Inc | ▶ | $752M |
| BCAL California Bancorp \ Ca | ▶ | $700M |
| PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp. | ▲ | $681M |
| CARE Carter Bankshares, Inc. | ▶ | $670M |
| CBNK Capital Bancorp Inc | ▲ | $645M |
| SFST Southern First Bancshares Inc | ▲ | $566M |
Where KEY sits on the market map
Keycorp /New/ (KEY) stock news
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Keycorp /New/ (KEY) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Keycorp /New/ (KEY) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Keycorp /New/ outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Keycorp /New/ stock predictions?
For KEY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 31.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 27.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Keycorp /New/ forecasts updated?
Keycorp /New/ forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Keycorp /New/'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, KEY included, share the SEC industry code National Commercial Banks. The largest are: Jpmorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Bank Of America Corp /De/ (BAC), Wells Fargo & Company/Mn (WFC), Citigroup Inc (C), Ubs Group Ag (UBS), Mizuho Financial Group Inc (MFG).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.