Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.43B. It ranks number 60 by market capitalization among the 60 Pharmaceutical Preparations issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For RARE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 14.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 0.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How RARE ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Pharmaceutical Preparations peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | RARE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.43B | 60/60 |
| EPS | $-5.83 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $5.90 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-4.96 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | RARE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | -46.4% | 38/43 |
| ROIC | -57.9% | 39/46 |
| Operating Margin | -90.9% | 34/39 |
| Net Margin | -100.8% | 30/35 |
| EBT Margin | -100.2% | 41/46 |
| Tax Rate | -0.6% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | RARE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73x | 40/59 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.56x | 22/44 |
| Interest Coverage | -32.5x | 32/36 |
| Working Capital | $255M | 47/59 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | RARE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$485M | 55/59 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$489M | 46/50 |
| Capital Spending | -$4M | 16/50 |
| FCF/Sales | -84.2% | 39/42 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.7% | 32/42 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | RARE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.46x | 23/40 |
| Receivables Turnover | 2.9x | 32/38 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.5x | 36/41 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 126 days | 7/38 |
Income Statement
| Metric | RARE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $581M | 40/46 |
| Operating Income | -$528M | 46/51 |
| Net Income | -$586M | 39/46 |
| R&D Expense | $773M | 23/58 |
| SG&A Expense | $351M | 36/41 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | RARE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 99M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $606M | 47.9% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $125M | 9.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $200M | 15.8% of assets |
| Inventory | $59M | 4.7% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.55B | |
| Short-term Debt | $312M | 24.7% of assets |
RARE quarterly financials and insider trading
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (Pharmaceutical Preparations): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | ▲ | $1.43B |
| LLY Eli Lilly & Co | ▶ | $1.18T |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | ▼ | $615.87B |
| ABBV Abbvie Inc. | ▶ | $504.37B |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | ▲ | $360.08B |
| NVS Novartis Ag | ▼ | $287.41B |
| AZN Astrazeneca Plc | ▼ | $256.39B |
| ABT Abbott Laboratories | ▼ | $182.39B |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A S | ▼ | $172.56B |
| PFE Pfizer Inc | ▶ | $168.60B |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma | ▶ | $126.66B |
| BMY Bristol Myers Squibb Co | ▶ | $122.05B |
| GSK Gsk Plc | ▼ | $100.46B |
| SNY Sanofi | ▼ | $100.12B |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▶ | $81.76B |
| TAK Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd | ▼ | $61.45B |
| TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd | ▼ | $48.36B |
| ONC Beone Medicines Ltd. | ▲ | $41.96B |
| ZTS Zoetis Inc. | ▼ | $32.80B |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▶ | $31.02B |
| RPRX Royalty Pharma Plc | ▶ | $26.88B |
| ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. | ▲ | $24.22B |
| GMAB Genmab A/S | ▲ | $23.80B |
| UTHR United Therapeutics Corp | ▶ | $22.87B |
| VTRS Viatris Inc | ▼ | $21.43B |
| INSM Insmed Inc | ▶ | $21.02B |
| ASND Ascendis Pharma A/S | ▲ | $14.85B |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc | ▼ | $13.65B |
| BBIO Bridgebio Pharma, Inc. | ▶ | $12.98B |
| CORT Corcept Therapeutics Inc | ▲ | $11.91B |
| ELAN Elanco Animal Health Inc | ▼ | $11.77B |
| SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. | ▶ | $11.67B |
| RDY Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd | ▼ | $10.91B |
| BMRN Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc | ▶ | $10.58B |
| MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▶ | $10.39B |
| CYTK Cytokinetics Inc | ▲ | $8.61B |
| TGTX Tg Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $8.56B |
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc | ▶ | $8.33B |
| AXSM Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $8.23B |
| ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $7.90B |
| ABVX Abivax S.A. | ▼ | $7.74B |
| IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc | ▲ | $7.14B |
| SYRE Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $7.05B |
| ALKS Alkermes Plc. | ▲ | $6.92B |
| PRAX Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc. | ▲ | $6.75B |
| KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, Plc | ▶ | $6.13B |
| AMRX Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $6.13B |
| RYTM Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $5.93B |
| LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc | ▶ | $5.89B |
| BLTE Belite Bio, Inc | ▲ | $5.62B |
| MIRM Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $5.20B |
| COGT Cogent Biosciences, Inc. | ▶ | $5.12B |
| PTCT Ptc Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $4.94B |
| ORKA Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $4.76B |
| ERAS Erasca, Inc. | ▲ | $4.68B |
| MANE Veradermics, Inc | ▲ | $4.55B |
| TVTX Travere Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $4.44B |
| EWTX Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $4.04B |
| DNTH Dianthus Therapeutics, Inc. /De/ | ▲ | $4.03B |
| INDV Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▶ | $3.83B |
Where RARE sits on the market map
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) stock news
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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. stock predictions?
For RARE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 14.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 0.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. forecasts updated?
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, RARE included, share the SEC industry code Pharmaceutical Preparations. The largest are: Eli Lilly & Co (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Abbvie Inc. (ABBV), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Novartis Ag (NVS), Astrazeneca Plc (AZN).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.