American Financial Group Inc's Dividend Analysis
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Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
▼ Bearish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Bottom 35%
of 5171 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
7.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$12.37B
large-cap · #16 of 55 peers
Summary
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks American Financial Group Inc outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
American Financial Group Inc is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $12.37B. It ranks number 16 by market capitalization among the 55 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For AFG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 7.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 23.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, AFG included.
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AFG price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How AFG ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $12.37B | 16/55 |
| P/E Ratio | 13.02x | 15/49 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.57x | 10/54 |
| Dividend Yield | 9.15% | 3/33 |
| EPS | $11.45 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $58.14 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $99.83 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 19.8% | 23/51 |
| ROA | 2.9% | 32/50 |
| Operating Margin | 14.5% | 6/8 |
| Net Margin | 11.5% | 30/51 |
| EBT Margin | 15.2% | 30/51 |
| Tax Rate | 19.8% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | AFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 5.85x | 8/55 |
| Financial Leverage | 6.85x | 8/52 |
| Interest Coverage | 13.2x | 4/12 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.57B | 16/56 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -6.0% | 28/44 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.25x | 34/50 |
Income Statement
| Metric | AFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $8.28B | 16/55 |
| Operating Income | $1.20B | 3/9 |
| Net Income | $953M | 16/51 |
| SG&A Expense | $2.11B | 4/12 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $13.64 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 119.1% | 4/31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 83M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 24.7% | 25/40 |
| EPS Growth | 25.8% | 28/43 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.44B | 4.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $28.21B | 85.4% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
AFG quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as American Financial Group Inc (Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance): 56 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| AFG American Financial Group Inc | ▼ | $12.37B |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc | ▼ | $1.14T |
| CB Chubb Ltd | ▼ | $141.60B |
| PGR Progressive Corp/Oh/ | ▶ | $124.27B |
| TRV Travelers Companies, Inc. | ▼ | $80.07B |
| ALL Allstate Corp | ▶ | $62.68B |
| AIG American International Group, Inc. | ▼ | $42.22B |
| HIG Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $36.60B |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | ▼ | $34.56B |
| WRB Berkley W R Corp | ▼ | $27.46B |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp | ▼ | $26.28B |
| MKL Markel Group Inc. | ▼ | $22.92B |
| L Loews Corp | ▼ | $22.59B |
| EG Everest Group, Ltd. | ▶ | $14.92B |
| RNR Renaissancere Holdings Ltd | ▶ | $14.30B |
| CNA Cna Financial Corp | ▶ | $12.96B |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | ▼ | $8.32B |
| THG Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $7.95B |
| AXS Axis Capital Holdings Ltd | ▼ | $7.68B |
| MCY Mercury General Corp | ▶ | $5.69B |
| RLI Rli Corp | ▼ | $5.46B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group Inc | ▼ | $5.20B |
| WTM White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd | ▼ | $5.12B |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $3.62B |
| HG Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. | ▶ | $3.56B |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | ▲ | $3.42B |
| SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $3.10B |
| SPNT Siriuspoint Ltd | ▶ | $2.89B |
| SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $2.67B |
| HCI Hci Group, Inc. | ▶ | $2.47B |
| PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd | ▶ | $2.10B |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corp /De/ | ▶ | $1.88B |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc | ▼ | $1.53B |
| KMPR Kemper Corp | ▼ | $1.46B |
| UFCS United Fire Group Inc | ▶ | $1.42B |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co Holdings | ▲ | $1.31B |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $1.30B |
| HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $1.06B |
| HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $931M |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $920M |
| ROOT Root, Inc. | ▶ | $788M |
| DGICA Donegal Group Inc | ▶ | $693M |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | ▼ | $628M |
| AII American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | ▲ | $539M |
| ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corp | ▶ | $525M |
| GLRE Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | ▶ | $484M |
| AMSF Amerisafe Inc | ▼ | $468M |
| GBLI Global Indemnity Group, Llc | ▲ | $355M |
| NODK Ni Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $303M |
| KWY Kingsway Corp | ▲ | $281M |
| KINS Kingstone Companies, Inc. | ▲ | $271M |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $177M |
| KG Kestrel Group Ltd | ▲ | $36M |
| PRHI Presurance Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $30M |
| OXBR Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd | ▲ | $8M |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. | ▶ | N/A |
Where AFG sits on the market map
Finance · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
News
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) stock news
American Financial Group, Inc. Increases Annual Common Stock Dividend by 10.2%; Twenty-First Consecutive Year of Dividend Increases
The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for ...
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Financial Group 2025 Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being ...
FAQ
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the American Financial Group Inc (AFG) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks American Financial Group Inc outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are American Financial Group Inc stock predictions?
For AFG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 7.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 23.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are American Financial Group Inc forecasts updated?
American Financial Group Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are American Financial Group Inc's industry peers?
56 issuers in our coverage, AFG included, share the SEC industry code Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance. The largest are: Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-B), Chubb Ltd (CB), Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR), Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV), Allstate Corp (ALL), American International Group, Inc. (AIG).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.