Lawton W. Fitt Acquires 66.7769 Phantom Stock Units at Progressive Corp on October 9, 2026
Lawton W. Fitt, Director of Progressive Corp/OH/ Security acquired: 66.7769 Phantom Stock Units (restricted stock) obtained ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
Alpha
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5172 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
-17.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$127.02B
large-cap · #3 of 55 peers
Summary
Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, PGR is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Progressive Corp/Oh/ is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $127.02B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 55 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its Dividend Yield of 19.05% is the highest of the 33 peers that report one.
For PGR, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -17.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 1.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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PGR price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How PGR ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | PGR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $127.02B | 3/55 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.96x | 22/49 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.70x | 6/54 |
| Dividend Yield | 19.05% | 1/33 |
| EPS | $19.93 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $59.06 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $156.62 | – |
| FCF/Share | $27.44 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | PGR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 34.1% | 5/51 |
| ROA | 9.4% | 5/50 |
| Net Margin | 12.8% | 29/51 |
| EBT Margin | 16.2% | 27/51 |
| Tax Rate | 20.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | PGR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 2.64x | 41/55 |
| Financial Leverage | 3.64x | 39/52 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | PGR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $16.34B | 2/56 |
| Free Cash Flow | $15.95B | 2/30 |
| Capital Spending | -$388M | 29/30 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -2.8% | 27/44 |
| FCF Growth YoY | -3.2% | 17/24 |
| FCF/Sales | 17.5% | 17/30 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.4% | 14/30 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | PGR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.73x | 1/50 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 98.8x | 8/30 |
Income Statement
| Metric | PGR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $91.06B | 2/55 |
| Net Income | $11.70B | 2/51 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | PGR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $41.63 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 208.9% | 1/31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 581M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 12.1% | 30/40 |
| EPS Growth | 12.3% | 31/43 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $178M | 0.1% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $90.59B | 72.5% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
PGR quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Progressive Corp/Oh/ (Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance): 56 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| PGR Progressive Corp/Oh/ | ▶ | $127.02B |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc | ▼ | $1.14T |
| CB Chubb Ltd | ▼ | $141.60B |
| TRV Travelers Companies, Inc. | ▼ | $81.25B |
| ALL Allstate Corp | ▶ | $62.68B |
| AIG American International Group, Inc. | ▼ | $42.22B |
| HIG Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $36.60B |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | ▼ | $34.56B |
| WRB Berkley W R Corp | ▼ | $28.00B |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp | ▼ | $26.28B |
| MKL Markel Group Inc. | ▼ | $22.92B |
| L Loews Corp | ▼ | $22.59B |
| EG Everest Group, Ltd. | ▶ | $14.92B |
| RNR Renaissancere Holdings Ltd | ▼ | $14.59B |
| CNA Cna Financial Corp | ▶ | $12.96B |
| AFG American Financial Group Inc | ▼ | $12.37B |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | ▼ | $8.32B |
| THG Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $8.11B |
| AXS Axis Capital Holdings Ltd | ▼ | $7.68B |
| MCY Mercury General Corp | ▶ | $5.69B |
| RLI Rli Corp | ▼ | $5.60B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group Inc | ▼ | $5.31B |
| WTM White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd | ▼ | $5.16B |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $3.67B |
| HG Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. | ▶ | $3.56B |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | ▲ | $3.42B |
| SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $3.16B |
| SPNT Siriuspoint Ltd | ▶ | $2.92B |
| SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $2.72B |
| HCI Hci Group, Inc. | ▶ | $2.47B |
| PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd | ▶ | $2.10B |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corp /De/ | ▶ | $1.88B |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc | ▼ | $1.53B |
| KMPR Kemper Corp | ▼ | $1.46B |
| UFCS United Fire Group Inc | ▶ | $1.45B |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $1.31B |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co Holdings | ▲ | $1.31B |
| HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $1.06B |
| HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $931M |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $920M |
| ROOT Root, Inc. | ▶ | $787M |
| DGICA Donegal Group Inc | ▶ | $693M |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | ▼ | $623M |
| AII American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | ▲ | $539M |
| ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corp | ▶ | $525M |
| GLRE Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | ▶ | $484M |
| AMSF Amerisafe Inc | ▼ | $468M |
| GBLI Global Indemnity Group, Llc | ▲ | $355M |
| NODK Ni Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $303M |
| KWY Kingsway Corp | ▲ | $281M |
| KINS Kingstone Companies, Inc. | ▲ | $271M |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $177M |
| KG Kestrel Group Ltd | ▲ | $36M |
| PRHI Presurance Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $30M |
| OXBR Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd | ▲ | $8M |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. | ▶ | N/A |
Where PGR sits on the market map
Finance · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
News
Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR) stock news
Progressive Director Philip Bleser Acquires 11.4438 Phantom Stock Units
Philip Bleser’s Phantom Stock Unit Purchase Under Progressive’s Director Compensation Plan The filing reveals that ...
PROGRESSIVE CORP(OHIO) (PGR.MX) Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript
Earnings call Progressive delivered another quarter of industry-leading profitable growth, gaining 1.9 points of personal auto market share in 2025 to reach 18.6%, with combined ratios below 90 in ...
FAQ
Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, PGR is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Progressive Corp/Oh/ stock predictions?
For PGR, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -17.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 1.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Progressive Corp/Oh/ forecasts updated?
Progressive Corp/Oh/ forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Progressive Corp/Oh/'s industry peers?
56 issuers in our coverage, PGR included, share the SEC industry code Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance. The largest are: Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-B), Chubb Ltd (CB), Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV), Allstate Corp (ALL), American International Group, Inc. (AIG), Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.