Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, HRTG is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.06B. It ranks number 38 by market capitalization among the 55 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its P/E Ratio of 4.47x is the lowest of the 49 peers that report one.
For HRTG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -9.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 1.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, HRTG included.
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How HRTG ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.06B | 38/55 |
| P/E Ratio | 4.47x | 49/49 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.87x | 22/54 |
| EPS | $8.01 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $19.09 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $28.74 | – |
| FCF/Share | $10.01 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 40.8% | 2/51 |
| ROA | 9.4% | 4/50 |
| Operating Margin | 34.4% | 3/8 |
| Net Margin | 27.0% | 7/51 |
| EBT Margin | 33.5% | 8/51 |
| Tax Rate | 25.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 3.32x | 24/55 |
| Financial Leverage | 4.32x | 23/52 |
| Interest Coverage | 59.0x | 1/12 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $305M | 32/56 |
| Free Cash Flow | $298M | 21/30 |
| Capital Spending | -$7M | 14/30 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 184.7% | 1/24 |
| FCF/Sales | 34.8% | 7/30 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.8% | 9/30 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.35x | 17/50 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 30.8x | 22/30 |
Income Statement
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $855M | 39/55 |
| Operating Income | $295M | 5/9 |
| Net Income | $232M | 27/51 |
| SG&A Expense | $93M | 11/12 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 30M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 55.2% | 9/40 |
| EPS Growth | 171.5% | 5/43 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $588M | 24.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.88B | 76.8% of assets |
HRTG quarterly financials and insider trading
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance): 56 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $1.06B |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc | ▼ | $1.14T |
| CB Chubb Ltd | ▼ | $141.60B |
| PGR Progressive Corp/Oh/ | ▶ | $127.02B |
| TRV Travelers Companies, Inc. | ▼ | $81.25B |
| ALL Allstate Corp | ▶ | $62.68B |
| AIG American International Group, Inc. | ▼ | $42.22B |
| HIG Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $36.60B |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | ▼ | $34.56B |
| WRB Berkley W R Corp | ▼ | $28.00B |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp | ▼ | $26.28B |
| MKL Markel Group Inc. | ▼ | $22.92B |
| L Loews Corp | ▼ | $22.59B |
| EG Everest Group, Ltd. | ▶ | $14.92B |
| RNR Renaissancere Holdings Ltd | ▼ | $14.59B |
| CNA Cna Financial Corp | ▶ | $12.96B |
| AFG American Financial Group Inc | ▼ | $12.37B |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | ▼ | $8.32B |
| THG Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $8.11B |
| AXS Axis Capital Holdings Ltd | ▼ | $7.68B |
| MCY Mercury General Corp | ▶ | $5.69B |
| RLI Rli Corp | ▼ | $5.60B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group Inc | ▼ | $5.31B |
| WTM White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd | ▼ | $5.16B |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $3.67B |
| HG Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. | ▶ | $3.56B |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | ▲ | $3.42B |
| SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $3.16B |
| SPNT Siriuspoint Ltd | ▶ | $2.92B |
| SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. | ▼ | $2.72B |
| HCI Hci Group, Inc. | ▶ | $2.47B |
| PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd | ▶ | $2.10B |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corp /De/ | ▶ | $1.88B |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc | ▼ | $1.53B |
| KMPR Kemper Corp | ▼ | $1.46B |
| UFCS United Fire Group Inc | ▶ | $1.45B |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $1.31B |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co Holdings | ▲ | $1.31B |
| HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $931M |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $920M |
| ROOT Root, Inc. | ▶ | $787M |
| DGICA Donegal Group Inc | ▶ | $693M |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | ▼ | $623M |
| AII American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | ▲ | $539M |
| ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corp | ▶ | $525M |
| GLRE Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | ▶ | $484M |
| AMSF Amerisafe Inc | ▼ | $468M |
| GBLI Global Indemnity Group, Llc | ▲ | $355M |
| NODK Ni Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $302M |
| KWY Kingsway Corp | ▲ | $277M |
| KINS Kingstone Companies, Inc. | ▲ | $271M |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $177M |
| KG Kestrel Group Ltd | ▲ | $36M |
| PRHI Presurance Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $30M |
| OXBR Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd | ▲ | $8M |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. | ▶ | N/A |
Where HRTG sits on the market map
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) stock news
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Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, HRTG is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. stock predictions?
For HRTG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -9.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 1.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. forecasts updated?
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s industry peers?
56 issuers in our coverage, HRTG included, share the SEC industry code Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance. The largest are: Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-B), Chubb Ltd (CB), Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR), Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV), Allstate Corp (ALL), American International Group, Inc. (AIG).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.