Heritage Insurance Stock Falls 3.6% YTD: Time to Buy the Dip?
Detailed price information for Universal Insurance Holdings Inc (UVE-N) from The Globe and Mail including charting and trades.
Model output · Signal date 2026-11-06
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
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90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
of 5150 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
-12.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$1.00B
small-cap · #38 of 55 peers
Summary
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.00B. It ranks number 38 by market capitalization among the 55 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For HRTG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -12.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -3.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, HRTG included.
Price
HRTG price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-11-06
How HRTG ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.00B | 38/55 |
| P/E Ratio | 4.21x | 48/49 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.76x | 22/54 |
| EPS | $8.01 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $19.09 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $28.74 | – |
| FCF/Share | $10.01 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 40.8% | 3/50 |
| ROA | 9.4% | 4/49 |
| Operating Margin | 34.4% | 3/9 |
| Net Margin | 27.0% | 4/50 |
| EBT Margin | 33.5% | 7/51 |
| Tax Rate | 25.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 3.32x | 27/55 |
| Financial Leverage | 4.32x | 27/53 |
| Interest Coverage | 59.0x | 1/12 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $305M | 34/56 |
| Free Cash Flow | $298M | 20/30 |
| Capital Spending | -$7M | 13/30 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 184.7% | 1/22 |
| FCF/Sales | 34.8% | 7/30 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.8% | 11/30 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.35x | 17/51 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 30.8x | 22/30 |
Income Statement
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $855M | 39/55 |
| Operating Income | $295M | 5/10 |
| Net Income | $232M | 29/50 |
| SG&A Expense | $93M | 10/11 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | HRTG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 30M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 55.2% | 7/39 |
| EPS Growth | 171.5% | 6/43 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $588M | 23.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.88B | 76.8% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
HRTG quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance): 56 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | $1.00B | |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc | $1.23T | |
| CB Chubb Ltd | $139.47B | |
| PGR Progressive Corp/Oh/ | $132.42B | |
| TRV Travelers Companies, Inc. | $82.57B | |
| ALL Allstate Corp | $64.43B | |
| AIG American International Group, Inc. | $40.65B | |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | $36.61B | |
| HIG Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $35.83B | |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp | $28.47B | |
| WRB Berkley W R Corp | $27.93B | |
| MKL Markel Group Inc. | $23.71B | |
| L Loews Corp | $22.47B | |
| EG Everest Group, Ltd. | $15.23B | |
| RNR Renaissancere Holdings Ltd | $14.04B | |
| AFG American Financial Group Inc | $12.82B | |
| CNA Cna Financial Corp | $12.81B | |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $8.64B | |
| THG Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | $8.35B | |
| AXS Axis Capital Holdings Ltd | $7.60B | |
| RLI Rli Corp | $6.27B | |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group Inc | $5.87B | |
| WTM White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd | $5.35B | |
| MCY Mercury General Corp | $4.58B | |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | $4.10B | |
| HG Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. | $3.63B | |
| SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. | $3.10B | |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | $3.06B | |
| SPNT Siriuspoint Ltd | $3.05B | |
| SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. | $2.84B | |
| HCI Hci Group, Inc. | $2.31B | |
| PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd | $2.29B | |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corp /De/ | $2.16B | |
| KMPR Kemper Corp | $2.08B | |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc | $1.53B | |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | $1.29B | |
| UFCS United Fire Group Inc | $1.23B | |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co Holdings | $1.16B | |
| HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc. | $926M | |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | $830M | |
| DGICA Donegal Group Inc | $695M | |
| ROOT Root, Inc. | $672M | |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | $639M | |
| AII American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | $528M | |
| GLRE Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | $525M | |
| ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corp | $475M | |
| AMSF Amerisafe Inc | $363M | |
| NODK Ni Holdings, Inc. | $314M | |
| GBLI Global Indemnity Group, Llc | $307M | |
| KWY Kingsway Corp | $277M | |
| KINS Kingstone Companies, Inc. | $274M | |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings, Inc. | $180M | |
| KG Kestrel Group Ltd | $32M | |
| PRHI Presurance Holdings, Inc. | $26M | |
| OXBR Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd | $6M | |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. | N/A |
Where HRTG sits on the market map
Finance · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
News
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) stock news
HRTG Q3 earnings call highlights pricing pressure and growth plans
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. HRTG emphasized underwriting discipline, geographic diversification and reinsurance savings during its third-quarter 2026 earnings call. Management outlined plans to ...
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Good morning, and welcome to the Heritage Insurance Holdings Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to ...
FAQ
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. stock predictions?
For HRTG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -12.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -3.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. forecasts updated?
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s industry peers?
56 issuers in our coverage, HRTG included, share the SEC industry code Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance. The largest are: Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-B), Chubb Ltd (CB), Progressive Corp/Oh/ (PGR), Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV), Allstate Corp (ALL), American International Group, Inc. (AIG).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.