Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, GRBK is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.63B. It ranks number 9 by market capitalization among the 17 Operative Builders issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its Net Margin of 14.5% is the highest of the 12 peers that report one.
For GRBK, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 17.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 9.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How GRBK ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Operative Builders peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | GRBK | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.63B | 9/17 |
| P/E Ratio | 9.21x | 14/15 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33x | 7/15 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.14% | 7/7 |
| EPS | $6.64 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $45.93 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $46.76 | – |
| FCF/Share | $3.87 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | GRBK | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 14.8% | 3/13 |
| ROA | 11.2% | 3/14 |
| Gross Margin | 30.6% | 2/10 |
| Net Margin | 14.5% | 1/12 |
| EBT Margin | 20.1% | 2/12 |
| Tax Rate | 22.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | GRBK | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 0.28x | 15/16 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.32x | 15/16 |
| Interest Coverage | -2.8x | 10/10 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | GRBK | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $173M | 9/16 |
| Free Cash Flow | $167M | 9/15 |
| Capital Spending | -$7M | 3/15 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 4.4% | 7/10 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 2.4% | 7/10 |
| FCF/Sales | 8.3% | 5/14 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.3% | 11/14 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | GRBK | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.77x | 10/14 |
| Receivables Turnover | 71.0x | 3/7 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 314.7x | 1/9 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 5 days | 5/7 |
Income Statement
| Metric | GRBK | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $2.01B | 12/14 |
| Net Income | $291M | 7/13 |
| SG&A Expense | $224M | 10/11 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $1.39B | 6/8 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | GRBK | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.08 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 1.2% | 7/7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 43M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -16.8% | 3/12 |
| EPS Growth | -15.2% | 3/15 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $132M | 5.2% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $28M | 1.1% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $562M | 22.1% of assets |
GRBK quarterly financials and insider trading
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Green Brick Partners, Inc. (Operative Builders): 17 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | ▶ | $2.63B |
| DHI Horton D R Inc /De/ | ▶ | $38.99B |
| PHM Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ | ▶ | $21.29B |
| NVR Nvr Inc | ▶ | $15.78B |
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | ▶ | $12.32B |
| ECG Everus Construction Group, Inc. | ▶ | $5.60B |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corp | ▶ | $3.86B |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | ▶ | $3.15B |
| KBH Kb Home | ▲ | $2.65B |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | ▲ | $1.55B |
| LGIH Lgi Homes, Inc. | ▲ | $1000M |
| BZH Beazer Homes Usa Inc | ▼ | $892M |
| DFH Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | ▲ | $807M |
| HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc | ▲ | $580M |
| SDHC Smith Douglas Homes Corp. | ▶ | $525M |
| VNJA Vanjia Corp | ▼ | $165M |
| DREM Dream Homes & Development Corp. | ▼ | $780K |
Where GRBK sits on the market map
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) stock news
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Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, GRBK is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Green Brick Partners, Inc. stock predictions?
For GRBK, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 17.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 9.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Green Brick Partners, Inc. forecasts updated?
Green Brick Partners, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s industry peers?
17 issuers in our coverage, GRBK included, share the SEC industry code Operative Builders. The largest are: Horton D R Inc /De/ (DHI), Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ (PHM), Nvr Inc (NVR), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG), Meritage Homes Corp (MTH).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.