Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, TOL is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $12.32B. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 17 Operative Builders issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For TOL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -7.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 11.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, TOL included.
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How TOL ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Operative Builders peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $12.32B | 4/17 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.79x | 12/15 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.44x | 6/15 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.79% | 6/7 |
| EPS | $12.39 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $92.58 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $116.76 | – |
| FCF/Share | $11.83 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 14.1% | 5/13 |
| ROA | 8.2% | 6/14 |
| Gross Margin | 23.8% | 4/10 |
| Operating Margin | 13.8% | 2/6 |
| Net Margin | 11.1% | 4/12 |
| EBT Margin | 15.9% | 3/12 |
| Tax Rate | 23.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 0.72x | 9/16 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.72x | 9/16 |
| Interest Coverage | 106.8x | 5/10 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.19B | 3/16 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.09B | 3/15 |
| Capital Spending | -$102M | 13/15 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 19.8% | 4/10 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 18.7% | 4/10 |
| FCF/Sales | 10.1% | 2/14 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.9% | 3/14 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.73x | 12/14 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 36.6x | 7/9 |
Income Statement
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $10.76B | 3/14 |
| Operating Income | $1.49B | 1/6 |
| Net Income | $1.20B | 3/13 |
| SG&A Expense | $1.07B | 3/11 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $8.20B | 3/8 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.06 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 8.6% | 6/7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 92M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -12.9% | 2/12 |
| EPS Growth | -8.8% | 2/15 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.06B | 7.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $6.14B | 41.8% of assets |
TOL quarterly financials and insider trading
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Toll Brothers, Inc. (Operative Builders): 17 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | ▶ | $12.32B |
| DHI Horton D R Inc /De/ | ▶ | $38.99B |
| PHM Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ | ▶ | $21.29B |
| NVR Nvr Inc | ▶ | $15.78B |
| ECG Everus Construction Group, Inc. | ▲ | $5.60B |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corp | ▶ | $3.86B |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | ▶ | $3.15B |
| KBH Kb Home | ▲ | $2.65B |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | ▶ | $2.63B |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | ▶ | $1.55B |
| LGIH Lgi Homes, Inc. | ▲ | $1000M |
| BZH Beazer Homes Usa Inc | ▼ | $892M |
| DFH Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | ▲ | $807M |
| HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc | ▲ | $580M |
| SDHC Smith Douglas Homes Corp. | ▶ | $525M |
| VNJA Vanjia Corp | ▼ | $165M |
| DREM Dream Homes & Development Corp. | ▼ | $780K |
Where TOL sits on the market map
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock news
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Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, TOL is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Toll Brothers, Inc. stock predictions?
For TOL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -7.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 11.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Toll Brothers, Inc. forecasts updated?
Toll Brothers, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Toll Brothers, Inc.'s industry peers?
17 issuers in our coverage, TOL included, share the SEC industry code Operative Builders. The largest are: Horton D R Inc /De/ (DHI), Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ (PHM), Nvr Inc (NVR), Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG), Meritage Homes Corp (MTH), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.