Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Toll Brothers, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $14.06B. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 15 Operative Builders issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For TOL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -8.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 6.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, TOL included.
TOL price chart and AI forecast
How TOL ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Operative Builders peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $14.06B | 4/15 |
| P/E Ratio | 12.31x | 11/14 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65x | 6/14 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.69% | 6/7 |
| EPS | $12.39 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $92.58 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $116.76 | – |
| FCF/Share | $11.83 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 14.1% | 3/12 |
| ROA | 8.2% | 6/13 |
| Gross Margin | 23.8% | 4/9 |
| Operating Margin | 13.8% | 2/5 |
| Net Margin | 11.1% | 4/12 |
| EBT Margin | 15.9% | 3/11 |
| Tax Rate | 23.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 0.72x | 8/14 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.72x | 8/14 |
| Interest Coverage | 106.8x | 4/9 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.19B | 3/14 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.09B | 3/14 |
| Capital Spending | -$102M | 12/14 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 19.8% | 3/11 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 18.7% | 3/11 |
| FCF/Sales | 10.1% | 2/13 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.9% | 2/13 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.73x | 11/13 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 36.6x | 6/8 |
Income Statement
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $10.76B | 3/13 |
| Operating Income | $1.49B | – |
| Net Income | $1.20B | 3/12 |
| SG&A Expense | $1.07B | 3/11 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $8.20B | 3/8 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | TOL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.06 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 8.6% | 6/7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 92M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -12.9% | 2/12 |
| EPS Growth | -8.8% | 2/14 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.06B | 7.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $6.14B | 41.9% of assets |
TOL quarterly financials and insider trading
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Toll Brothers, Inc. (Operative Builders): 15 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $14.06B | |
| DHI Horton D R Inc /De/ | $44.09B | |
| PHM Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ | $24.39B | |
| NVR Nvr Inc | $16.78B | |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corp | $4.38B | |
| ECG Everus Construction Group, Inc. | $3.70B | |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.36B | |
| KBH Kb Home | $3.08B | |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | $2.75B | |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | $1.56B | |
| DFH Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | $1.14B | |
| LGIH Lgi Homes, Inc. | $1.06B | |
| HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc | $605M | |
| SDHC Smith Douglas Homes Corp. | $525M | |
| DREM Dream Homes & Development Corp. | $780K |
Where TOL sits on the market map
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock news
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Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Toll Brothers, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Toll Brothers, Inc. stock predictions?
For TOL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -8.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 6.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Toll Brothers, Inc. forecasts updated?
Toll Brothers, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are Toll Brothers, Inc.'s industry peers?
15 issuers in our coverage, TOL included, share the SEC industry code Operative Builders. The largest are: Horton D R Inc /De/ (DHI), Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ (PHM), Nvr Inc (NVR), Meritage Homes Corp (MTH), Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.