Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, SDHC is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $525M. It ranks number 15 by market capitalization among the 17 Operative Builders issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For SDHC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 22.0%, measured on 263 forecast dates between 2024-05-17 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -5.0%, measured on 306 forecast dates between 2024-05-17 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.7%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How SDHC ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Operative Builders peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SDHC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $525M | 15/17 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.88x | 11/15 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.61x | 2/15 |
| EPS | $0.96 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $1.58 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $19.94 | – |
| FCF/Share | $0.67 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SDHC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 19.5% | 7/10 |
| EBT Margin | 4.0% | 10/12 |
| Tax Rate | 3.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | SDHC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 2.00x | 2/16 |
| Financial Leverage | 7.45x | 1/16 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SDHC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $37M | 13/16 |
| Free Cash Flow | $34M | 12/15 |
| Capital Spending | -$4M | 2/15 |
| FCF/Sales | 3.4% | 10/14 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.3% | 10/14 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | SDHC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.69x | 3/14 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 108.8x | 3/9 |
Income Statement
| Metric | SDHC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.00B | 14/14 |
| SG&A Expense | $150M | 11/11 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $807M | 8/8 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SDHC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 50M | – |
| EPS Growth | -42.5% | 9/15 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $14M | 6.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $159M | 66.7% of assets |
SDHC quarterly financials and insider trading
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Operative Builders): 17 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SDHC Smith Douglas Homes Corp. | ▶ | $525M |
| DHI Horton D R Inc /De/ | ▶ | $38.99B |
| PHM Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ | ▲ | $21.18B |
| NVR Nvr Inc | ▶ | $15.83B |
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | ▶ | $12.34B |
| ECG Everus Construction Group, Inc. | ▶ | $5.60B |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corp | ▶ | $3.93B |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | ▶ | $3.19B |
| KBH Kb Home | ▲ | $2.68B |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | ▶ | $2.63B |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | ▲ | $1.55B |
| LGIH Lgi Homes, Inc. | ▲ | $1.02B |
| BZH Beazer Homes Usa Inc | ▼ | $892M |
| DFH Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | ▲ | $807M |
| HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc | ▲ | $602M |
| VNJA Vanjia Corp | ▼ | $165M |
| DREM Dream Homes & Development Corp. | ▼ | $780K |
Where SDHC sits on the market map
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) stock news
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Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, SDHC is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Smith Douglas Homes Corp. stock predictions?
For SDHC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 22.0%, measured on 263 forecast dates between 2024-05-17 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -5.0%, measured on 306 forecast dates between 2024-05-17 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Smith Douglas Homes Corp. forecasts updated?
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Smith Douglas Homes Corp.'s industry peers?
17 issuers in our coverage, SDHC included, share the SEC industry code Operative Builders. The largest are: Horton D R Inc /De/ (DHI), Pultegroup Inc/Mi/ (PHM), Nvr Inc (NVR), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG), Meritage Homes Corp (MTH).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.