Moderna stuns Wall Street with surprise profit, raises outlook
Moderna Inc. MRNA stock traded higher Friday after the vaccine maker reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-11-06
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
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90-day forecast
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Alpha
Rank in coverage
of 5150 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
62.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$101.48B
large-cap · #3 of 60 peers
Summary
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Moderna, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Moderna, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $101.48B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 60 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For MRNA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 62.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 53.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, MRNA included.
Price
MRNA price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-11-06
How MRNA ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-09-30
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $101.48B | 3/60 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.84x | 12/48 |
| EPS | $-7.08 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $17.13 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $5.61 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-4.93 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -40.8% | 27/43 |
| ROA | -20.7% | 23/46 |
| ROIC | -25.6% | 23/52 |
| Gross Margin | 18.9% | 22/23 |
| Operating Margin | -130.8% | 23/40 |
| Net Margin | -124.5% | 22/35 |
| EBT Margin | -121.8% | 25/42 |
| Tax Rate | -2.2% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.62x | 42/59 |
| Quick Ratio | 3.47x | 15/29 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.97x | 12/51 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.97x | 12/50 |
| Interest Coverage | -85.7x | 24/37 |
| Working Capital | $5.32B | 4/58 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$1.78B | 56/56 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.97B | 49/49 |
| Capital Spending | -$185M | 46/49 |
| FCF/Sales | -87.9% | 21/32 |
| CapEx/Sales | 8.3% | 7/32 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.17x | 24/37 |
| Receivables Turnover | 1.6x | 23/23 |
| Inventory Turnover | 5.8x | 4/22 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.1x | 31/38 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 223 days | 1/23 |
| Days Inventory | 63 days | 19/22 |
| Payables Period | 52 days | 17/25 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 233 days | 2/17 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $2.24B | 7/38 |
| Operating Income | -$2.93B | 53/53 |
| Net Income | -$2.79B | 45/46 |
| R&D Expense | $2.66B | 5/55 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $1.82B | 5/26 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 399M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $7.34B | 54.5% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.20B | 8.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $1.37B | 10.1% of assets |
| Inventory | $313M | 2.3% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $6.63B | 49.2% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $1.77B | 13.1% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
MRNA quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Moderna, Inc. (Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MRNA Moderna, Inc. | $101.48B | |
| AMGN Amgen Inc | $248.92B | |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $207.00B | |
| ARGX Argenx Se | $57.38B | |
| RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | $38.08B | |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | $36.71B | |
| BNTX Biontech Se | $22.13B | |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $16.98B | |
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences Inc | $16.73B | |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $11.76B | |
| TECH Bio-Techne Corp | $11.43B | |
| KYMR Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. | $11.25B | |
| RGEN Repligen Corp | $11.09B | |
| QGEN Qiagen N.V. | $10.92B | |
| PCVX Vaxcyte, Inc. | $9.51B | |
| IBRX Immunitybio, Inc. | $9.15B | |
| KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | $8.92B | |
| TWST Twist Bioscience Corp | $7.57B | |
| CGON Cg Oncology, Inc. | $6.74B | |
| IMVT Immunovant, Inc. | $6.31B | |
| KOD Kodiak Sciences Inc. | $6.24B | |
| SRRK Scholar Rock Holding Corp | $5.54B | |
| CRSP Crispr Therapeutics Ag | $4.84B | |
| ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp | $4.47B | |
| RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. | $4.08B | |
| IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. | $3.64B | |
| TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $3.33B | |
| DNLI Denali Therapeutics Inc. | $3.21B | |
| ADMA Adma Biologics, Inc. | $2.85B | |
| BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. | $2.73B | |
| VCEL Vericel Corp | $2.65B | |
| COAG Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. | $2.29B | |
| RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $2.18B | |
| LIFE Atyr Pharma Inc | $2.14B | |
| REPL Replimune Group, Inc. | $2.05B | |
| BCRX Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Inc | $1.97B | |
| MAZE Maze Therapeutics, Inc. | $1.90B | |
| VIR Vir Biotechnology, Inc. | $1.86B | |
| MESO Mesoblast Ltd | $1.83B | |
| NVAX Novavax Inc | $1.78B | |
| ALVO Alvotech | $1.73B | |
| IMCR Immunocore Holdings Plc | $1.60B | |
| TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. | $1.41B | |
| VOR Vor Biopharma Inc. | $1.15B | |
| ODTX Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. | $924M | |
| GLUE Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc. | $902M | |
| IMTX Immatics N.V. | $853M | |
| PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. | $843M | |
| MGTX Meiragtx Holdings Plc | $817M | |
| DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. | $760M | |
| CGEM Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. | $728M | |
| SANA Sana Biotechnology, Inc. | $709M | |
| SLDB Solid Biosciences Inc. | $707M | |
| AURA Aura Biosciences, Inc. | $680M | |
| FDMT 4d Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. | $676M | |
| CADL Candel Therapeutics, Inc. | $670M | |
| DBVT Dbv Technologies S.A. | $657M | |
| SRZN Surrozen, Inc./De | $542M | |
| ENTX Entera Bio Ltd. | $518M | |
| SLBT Sl Science Holding Ltd | $513M |
Where MRNA sits on the market map
Life Sciences · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)
News
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock news
Moderna Climbs 5% Ahead of Earnings, Pfizer Eases Despite Raised Outlook, Merck Slides 2% Amid New Phase 3 Trial
Moderna surges on pre-earnings momentum, Pfizer dips after beating estimates and raising guidance, and Merck drops despite ...
Moderna, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance was increased to a range of 15% to 25%, up from the previous framework of up to 10%, based on strong demand and visibility into Q4 shipments. Management expects ...
FAQ
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Moderna, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Moderna, Inc. stock predictions?
For MRNA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 62.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 53.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Moderna, Inc. forecasts updated?
Moderna, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are Moderna, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, MRNA included, share the SEC industry code Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances). The largest are: Amgen Inc (AMGN), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Argenx Se (ARGX), Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD), Biogen Inc. (BIIB), Biontech Se (BNTX).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.