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Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
▲ Bullish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Top 35%
of 5171 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
63.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$87.04B
large-cap · #3 of 60 peers
Summary
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Moderna, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Moderna, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $87.04B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 60 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For MRNA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 63.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 53.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, MRNA included.
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MRNA price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How MRNA ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $87.04B | 3/60 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.87x | 11/49 |
| EPS | $-7.98 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $16.93 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $5.58 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-3.12 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -46.6% | 33/47 |
| ROA | -28.8% | 28/50 |
| ROIC | -39.4% | 34/53 |
| Gross Margin | 23.4% | 23/24 |
| Operating Margin | -149.0% | 24/40 |
| Net Margin | -141.4% | 24/37 |
| EBT Margin | -138.6% | 26/42 |
| Tax Rate | -2.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.29x | 53/59 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.18x | 22/28 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.62x | 19/53 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.62x | 19/52 |
| Interest Coverage | -85.7x | 26/37 |
| Working Capital | $3.28B | 6/59 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$1.07B | 56/57 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.24B | 50/50 |
| Capital Spending | -$171M | 46/50 |
| FCF/Sales | -55.8% | 21/32 |
| CapEx/Sales | 7.7% | 10/32 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.20x | 24/36 |
| Receivables Turnover | 131.1x | 1/24 |
| Inventory Turnover | 6.1x | 4/23 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.1x | 30/37 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 3 days | 24/24 |
| Days Inventory | 60 days | 20/23 |
| Payables Period | 36 days | 20/26 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 27 days | 12/18 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $2.23B | 7/37 |
| Operating Income | -$3.32B | 54/54 |
| Net Income | -$3.15B | 49/50 |
| R&D Expense | $2.88B | 5/56 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $1.71B | 5/26 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MRNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 399M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $5.82B | 53.1% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.72B | 15.7% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $17M | 0.2% of assets |
| Inventory | $280M | 2.6% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $4.20B | 38.3% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $2.37B | 21.6% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
MRNA quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Moderna, Inc. (Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MRNA Moderna, Inc. | ▲ | $87.04B |
| AMGN Amgen Inc | ▼ | $233.82B |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | ▲ | $193.67B |
| ARGX Argenx Se | ▼ | $50.69B |
| RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | ▲ | $38.14B |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | ▼ | $34.13B |
| BNTX Biontech Se | ▲ | $22.18B |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | ▶ | $15.42B |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | ▶ | $13.83B |
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences Inc | ▲ | $13.79B |
| TECH Bio-Techne Corp | ▼ | $11.37B |
| QGEN Qiagen N.V. | ▶ | $10.01B |
| RGEN Repligen Corp | ▲ | $9.90B |
| IBRX Immunitybio, Inc. | ▲ | $9.73B |
| PCVX Vaxcyte, Inc. | ▲ | $9.47B |
| KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | ▶ | $9.37B |
| TWST Twist Bioscience Corp | ▲ | $9.06B |
| KYMR Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $8.71B |
| IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $6.17B |
| IMVT Immunovant, Inc. | ▲ | $5.52B |
| KOD Kodiak Sciences Inc. | ▲ | $5.39B |
| CGON Cg Oncology, Inc. | ▲ | $5.31B |
| SRRK Scholar Rock Holding Corp | ▲ | $4.95B |
| CRSP Crispr Therapeutics Ag | ▲ | $4.76B |
| ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp | ▲ | $3.83B |
| RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $3.57B |
| TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $2.99B |
| DNLI Denali Therapeutics Inc. | ▼ | $2.81B |
| BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. | ▲ | $2.42B |
| ADMA Adma Biologics, Inc. | ▼ | $2.39B |
| LIFE Atyr Pharma Inc | ▲ | $2.37B |
| VCEL Vericel Corp | ▶ | $2.10B |
| RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ▲ | $2.07B |
| BCRX Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Inc | ▲ | $1.99B |
| NVAX Novavax Inc | ▲ | $1.86B |
| ALVO Alvotech | ▲ | $1.78B |
| VIR Vir Biotechnology, Inc. | ▲ | $1.77B |
| MESO Mesoblast Ltd | ▶ | $1.70B |
| MAZE Maze Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $1.53B |
| IMCR Immunocore Holdings Plc | ▶ | $1.51B |
| COAG Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $1.40B |
| TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. | ▲ | $1.22B |
| VOR Vor Biopharma Inc. | ▲ | $1.07B |
| REPL Replimune Group, Inc. | ▲ | $1.02B |
| JATT Zura Bio Ltd | ▶ | $994M |
| IMTX Immatics N.V. | ▲ | $902M |
| MGTX Meiragtx Holdings Plc | ▶ | $891M |
| SLBT Sl Science Holding Ltd | ▶ | $884M |
| CGEM Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $832M |
| GLUE Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $831M |
| ODTX Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $825M |
| DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $692M |
| SANA Sana Biotechnology, Inc. | ▲ | $680M |
| FDMT 4d Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $670M |
| AURA Aura Biosciences, Inc. | ▲ | $633M |
| PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. | ▲ | $629M |
| CADL Candel Therapeutics, Inc. | ▲ | $627M |
| SLDB Solid Biosciences Inc. | ▲ | $593M |
| DBVT Dbv Technologies S.A. | ▶ | $536M |
| VALN Valneva Se | ▼ | $505M |
Where MRNA sits on the market map
Life Sciences · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)
News
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock news
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FAQ
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Moderna, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Moderna, Inc. stock predictions?
For MRNA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 63.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 53.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Moderna, Inc. forecasts updated?
Moderna, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Moderna, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, MRNA included, share the SEC industry code Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances). The largest are: Amgen Inc (AMGN), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Argenx Se (ARGX), Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD), Biogen Inc. (BIIB), Biontech Se (BNTX).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.