Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Our AI scores Novavax Inc every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Novavax Inc is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.78B. It ranks number 40 by market capitalization among the 60 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For NVAX, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 19.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -15.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, NVAX included.
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) peers listed below that report each metric.
| Metric | NVAX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.78B | 40/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 119.77x | 2/16 |
| EPS | $0.09 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $2.50 | – |
| Metric | NVAX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | -15.7% | 18/52 |
| Gross Margin | 78.0% | 9/23 |
| Operating Margin | -21.2% | 17/40 |
| EBT Margin | -17.5% | 18/42 |
| Tax Rate | -6.7% | – |
| Metric | NVAX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.15x | 51/59 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.09x | 21/29 |
| Interest Coverage | -6.8x | 16/37 |
| Working Capital | $378M | 34/58 |
| Metric | NVAX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$239M | 42/56 |
| Metric | NVAX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.46x | 14/37 |
| Receivables Turnover | 8.4x | 4/23 |
| Inventory Turnover | 4.9x | 5/22 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 11.3x | 11/38 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 44 days | 20/23 |
| Days Inventory | 75 days | 18/22 |
| Payables Period | 101 days | 9/25 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 18 days | 14/17 |
| Metric | NVAX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $412M | 18/38 |
| Operating Income | -$87M | 21/53 |
| R&D Expense | $294M | 19/55 |
| SG&A Expense | $205M | 15/23 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $91M | 15/26 |
| Metric | NVAX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 165M | – |
| EPS Growth | -95.1% | 12/14 |
| Total Current Assets | $708M | 79.7% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $222M | 25.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $49M | 5.5% of assets |
| Inventory | $18M | 2.1% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.10B | |
| Short-term Debt | $305M | 34.3% of assets |
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Novavax Inc (Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| NVAX Novavax Inc | $1.78B | |
| AMGN Amgen Inc | $248.92B | |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $207.00B | |
| MRNA Moderna, Inc. | $101.48B | |
| ARGX Argenx Se | $57.38B | |
| RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | $38.08B | |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | $36.71B | |
| BNTX Biontech Se | $22.13B | |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $16.98B | |
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences Inc | $16.73B | |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $11.76B | |
| TECH Bio-Techne Corp | $11.43B | |
| KYMR Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. | $11.25B | |
| RGEN Repligen Corp | $11.09B | |
| QGEN Qiagen N.V. | $10.92B | |
| PCVX Vaxcyte, Inc. | $9.51B | |
| IBRX Immunitybio, Inc. | $9.15B | |
| KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | $8.92B | |
| TWST Twist Bioscience Corp | $7.57B | |
| CGON Cg Oncology, Inc. | $6.74B | |
| IMVT Immunovant, Inc. | $6.31B | |
| KOD Kodiak Sciences Inc. | $6.24B | |
| SRRK Scholar Rock Holding Corp | $5.54B | |
| CRSP Crispr Therapeutics Ag | $4.84B | |
| ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp | $4.47B | |
| RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. | $4.08B | |
| IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. | $3.64B | |
| TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $3.33B | |
| DNLI Denali Therapeutics Inc. | $3.21B | |
| ADMA Adma Biologics, Inc. | $2.85B | |
| BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. | $2.73B | |
| VCEL Vericel Corp | $2.65B | |
| COAG Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. | $2.29B | |
| RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $2.18B | |
| LIFE Atyr Pharma Inc | $2.14B | |
| REPL Replimune Group, Inc. | $2.05B | |
| BCRX Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Inc | $1.97B | |
| MAZE Maze Therapeutics, Inc. | $1.90B | |
| VIR Vir Biotechnology, Inc. | $1.86B | |
| MESO Mesoblast Ltd | $1.83B | |
| ALVO Alvotech | $1.73B | |
| IMCR Immunocore Holdings Plc | $1.60B | |
| TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. | $1.41B | |
| VOR Vor Biopharma Inc. | $1.15B | |
| ODTX Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. | $924M | |
| GLUE Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc. | $902M | |
| IMTX Immatics N.V. | $853M | |
| PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. | $843M | |
| MGTX Meiragtx Holdings Plc | $817M | |
| DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. | $760M | |
| CGEM Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. | $728M | |
| SANA Sana Biotechnology, Inc. | $709M | |
| SLDB Solid Biosciences Inc. | $707M | |
| AURA Aura Biosciences, Inc. | $680M | |
| FDMT 4d Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. | $676M | |
| CADL Candel Therapeutics, Inc. | $670M | |
| DBVT Dbv Technologies S.A. | $657M | |
| SRZN Surrozen, Inc./De | $542M | |
| ENTX Entera Bio Ltd. | $518M | |
| SLBT Sl Science Holding Ltd | $513M |
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Our AI scores Novavax Inc every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
For NVAX, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 19.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -15.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Novavax Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
60 issuers in our coverage, NVAX included, share the SEC industry code Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances). The largest are: Amgen Inc (AMGN), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), Argenx Se (ARGX), Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD), Biogen Inc. (BIIB).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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