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Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026

Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE

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Rating · 90D Neutral Alpha
90-day forecast Sign up free to reveal
30-day forecast Alpha
Rank in coverage Middle 30% of 5171 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D 20.0% Spearman, 322 dates
Market Cap $36.80B large-cap · #12 of 60 peers
Summary

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) stock forecast summary

On Oct. 16, 2026, EC is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.

Ecopetrol S.A. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $36.80B. It ranks number 12 by market capitalization among the 60 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.

For EC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 20.0%, measured on 322 forecast dates between 2023-03-31 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 21.0%, measured on 365 forecast dates between 2023-03-31 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report

Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.7%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)

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Price

EC price chart and AI forecast

EC
Cross-section · 2026-10-16

How EC ranks among 5171 stocks

90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).

Fundamentals · 2024-03-22

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) fundamentals

Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas peers listed below that report each metric. Statement values were filed in COP and are shown converted to USD (flows at the trailing twelve-month average rate, balances at the balance-sheet date rate).

Valuation & Market

MetricECIndustry medianRank
Market Cap $36.80B $4.02B 12/60

Dividend & Shareholder Information

MetricECIndustry medianRank
Shares Outstanding 2056M – –

Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions, converted from COP)

Total Liabilities$48.58B
Quarterly Financial Reports

EC quarterly financials and insider trading

Industry Peers · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) industry peers

Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Ecopetrol S.A. (Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.

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Company 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) Market Cap P/E Ratio P/B Ratio
EC Ecopetrol S.A. ▶ $36.80B – –
SHEL Shell Plc ▼ $298.93B – –
TTE Totalenergies Se ▼ $195.26B 6.4x –
PBR Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro Sa ▶ $163.05B – –
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd ▼ $111.99B 3.0x –
E Eni Spa ▼ $97.06B – –
EOG Eog Resources Inc ▶ $82.88B 12.3x 2.6x
CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. ▶ $62.04B 9.3x –
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ ▼ $60.65B 8.4x 1.5x
FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. ▲ $57.11B 39.5x 1.5x
DVN Devon Energy Corp/De ▼ $55.80B 10.2x 3.6x
WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd ▼ $44.24B 4.5x –
EQT Eqt Corp ▼ $33.97B 11.5x 2.3x
EXE Expand Energy Corp ▼ $22.24B 8.1x –
PR Permian Resources Corp ▶ $19.77B 12.2x 1.8x
OVV Ovintiv Inc. ▶ $18.22B 23.0x 1.6x
APA Apa Corp ▼ $17.22B 8.6x 2.5x
AR Antero Resources Corp ▼ $11.88B 9.3x 1.4x
SSL Sasol Ltd ▲ $10.34B 19.3x –
RRC Range Resources Corp ▶ $9.68B 10.3x 2.1x
SM Sm Energy Co ▶ $8.92B 7.4x 1.1x
CHRD Chord Energy Corp ▶ $8.45B 10.3x 1.0x
MTDR Matador Resources Co ▶ $6.65B 8.8x 1.1x
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp ▶ $5.81B 14.0x 2.7x
MUR Murphy Oil Corp ▶ $5.71B 18.5x 1.1x
CRGY Crescent Energy Co ▲ $5.65B 107.4x 1.1x
CNX Cnx Resources Corp ▶ $5.31B 5.7x 1.1x
CRC California Resources Corp ▶ $4.54B – 1.3x
PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. ▲ $4.20B 5.1x 14.4x
CRK Comstock Resources Inc ▶ $4.11B 13.7x 1.6x
HESM Hess Midstream Lp ▲ $3.93B 10.5x –
BSM Black Stone Minerals, L.P. ▼ $3.40B 13.3x –
GPOR Gulfport Energy Corp ▼ $2.94B 6.4x 1.6x
TALO Talos Energy Inc. ▶ $2.84B – 2.4x
NOG Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. ▶ $2.74B – 1.4x
BKV Bkv Corp ▼ $2.51B 16.2x 1.1x
VET Vermilion Energy Inc. ▶ $1.93B 9.8x –
MNR Mach Natural Resources Lp ▶ $1.81B 11.9x –
KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners, Lp ▼ $1.79B 21.7x –
KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. ▲ $1.60B – 3.0x
GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd. ▲ $1.58B – –
DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. ▼ $1.49B 17.1x –
AESI Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ▲ $1.23B – 1.1x
TBN Tamboran Resources Corp ▶ $1.11B – 1.4x
DEC Diversified Energy Co ▶ $1.05B – 1.1x
REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. ▼ $1.04B 8.5x 1.6x
INR Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. ▶ $791M 4.6x 2.0x
TXO Txo Partners, L.P. ▶ $787M – –
TTI Tetra Technologies Inc ▶ $786M 531.0x 1.9x
OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd. ▲ $772M 1.8x –
GPRK Geopark Ltd ▶ $761M 1.5x –
VTS Vitesse Energy, Inc. ▶ $733M 21.5x 1.2x
GRNT Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. ▶ $719M 24.8x 1.3x
EGY Vaalco Energy Inc /De/ ▲ $652M – 1.7x
SOC Sable Offshore Corp. ▼ $637M – 1.6x
WHK Whitehawk Minerals Corp. ▶ $576M – 2.1x
WTI W&T Offshore Inc ▲ $552M – –
SD Sandridge Energy Inc ▶ $516M 6.7x 1.0x
GTE Gran Tierra Energy Inc. ▶ $386M – 2.9x
NUAI New Era Energy & Digital, Inc. ▶ $355M – 2.6x

Where EC sits on the market map

Energy & Transportation · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
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News

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FAQ

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) stock forecast FAQ

What is the Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) stock forecast?

On Oct. 16, 2026, EC is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.

How accurate are Ecopetrol S.A. stock predictions?

For EC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 20.0%, measured on 322 forecast dates between 2023-03-31 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 21.0%, measured on 365 forecast dates between 2023-03-31 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report

How often are Ecopetrol S.A. forecasts updated?

Ecopetrol S.A. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.

Which companies are Ecopetrol S.A.'s industry peers?

60 issuers in our coverage, EC included, share the SEC industry code Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas. The largest are: Shell Plc (SHEL), Totalenergies Se (TTE), Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PBR), Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ), Eni Spa (E), Eog Resources Inc (EOG).

This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.