Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Obsidian Energy Ltd. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $805M. It ranks number 48 by market capitalization among the 60 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For OBE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 16.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 2.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How OBE ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas peers listed below that report each metric. Statement values were filed in CAD and are shown converted to USD (flows at the trailing twelve-month average rate, balances at the balance-sheet date rate).
Valuation & Market
| Metric | OBE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $805M | 48/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 1.92x | 40/41 |
| EPS | $6.23 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $29.64 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.73 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | OBE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 54.0% | 4/34 |
| ROA | 40.5% | 2/36 |
| Net Margin | 27.0% | 8/36 |
| EBT Margin | 17.6% | 24/48 |
Financial Health
| Metric | OBE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.54x | 46/54 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.33x | 46/49 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.33x | 41/43 |
| Working Capital | -$56M | 29/54 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | OBE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.01B | 28/54 |
| Free Cash Flow | $116M | 12/18 |
| Capital Spending | -$895M | 11/18 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 210.8% | 1/49 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 0.0% | 9/14 |
| FCF/Sales | 5.8% | 12/18 |
| CapEx/Sales | 44.9% | 3/18 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | OBE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.50x | 6/43 |
| Receivables Turnover | 49.6x | 3/43 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.9x | 14/43 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 7 days | 41/43 |
Income Statement
| Metric | OBE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.99B | 28/53 |
| Net Income | $538M | 20/39 |
| SG&A Expense | $56M | 9/10 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | OBE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 67M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions, converted from CAD)
| Total Current Assets | $66M | |
| Accounts Receivable | $41M | |
| Total Liabilities | $337M | |
| Short-term Debt | $9M |
OBE quarterly financials and insider trading
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Obsidian Energy Ltd. (Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd. | ▲ | $805M |
| SHEL Shell Plc | ▼ | $307.91B |
| TTE Totalenergies Se | ▼ | $201.55B |
| PBR Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro Sa | ▶ | $167.55B |
| CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd | ▼ | $111.99B |
| E Eni Spa | ▼ | $97.06B |
| EOG Eog Resources Inc | ▶ | $82.88B |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ | ▼ | $62.36B |
| CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | ▶ | $62.04B |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | ▲ | $57.11B |
| DVN Devon Energy Corp/De | ▼ | $55.80B |
| WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd | ▼ | $44.94B |
| EC Ecopetrol S.A. | ▶ | $36.80B |
| EQT Eqt Corp | ▼ | $33.97B |
| EXE Expand Energy Corp | ▼ | $22.24B |
| PR Permian Resources Corp | ▶ | $20.60B |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | ▶ | $19.10B |
| APA Apa Corp | ▼ | $17.22B |
| AR Antero Resources Corp | ▼ | $11.88B |
| SSL Sasol Ltd | ▲ | $10.62B |
| RRC Range Resources Corp | ▼ | $10.10B |
| SM Sm Energy Co | ▶ | $9.40B |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corp | ▶ | $8.45B |
| MTDR Matador Resources Co | ▼ | $7.12B |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp | ▶ | $6.01B |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corp | ▶ | $5.98B |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Co | ▲ | $5.65B |
| CNX Cnx Resources Corp | ▶ | $5.31B |
| CRC California Resources Corp | ▶ | $4.54B |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $4.18B |
| CRK Comstock Resources Inc | ▶ | $4.11B |
| HESM Hess Midstream Lp | ▲ | $3.94B |
| BSM Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | ▼ | $3.40B |
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | ▶ | $2.97B |
| GPOR Gulfport Energy Corp | ▼ | $2.94B |
| NOG Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. | ▶ | $2.89B |
| BKV Bkv Corp | ▼ | $2.51B |
| VET Vermilion Energy Inc. | ▼ | $2.02B |
| MNR Mach Natural Resources Lp | ▶ | $1.85B |
| KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners, Lp | ▼ | $1.83B |
| KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. | ▲ | $1.66B |
| GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd. | ▲ | $1.58B |
| DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. | ▼ | $1.49B |
| AESI Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. | ▲ | $1.23B |
| TBN Tamboran Resources Corp | ▶ | $1.10B |
| REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | ▶ | $1.08B |
| DEC Diversified Energy Co | ▶ | $1.05B |
| INR Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. | ▶ | $814M |
| TXO Txo Partners, L.P. | ▶ | $788M |
| TTI Tetra Technologies Inc | ▶ | $788M |
| VTS Vitesse Energy, Inc. | ▶ | $768M |
| GPRK Geopark Ltd | ▶ | $761M |
| GRNT Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. | ▶ | $719M |
| EGY Vaalco Energy Inc /De/ | ▲ | $652M |
| SOC Sable Offshore Corp. | ▼ | $637M |
| WHK Whitehawk Minerals Corp. | ▼ | $597M |
| WTI W&T Offshore Inc | ▲ | $574M |
| SD Sandridge Energy Inc | ▼ | $529M |
| GTE Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | ▶ | $386M |
| REI Ring Energy, Inc. | ▶ | $357M |
Where OBE sits on the market map
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) stock news
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Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Obsidian Energy Ltd. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Obsidian Energy Ltd. stock predictions?
For OBE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 16.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 2.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Obsidian Energy Ltd. forecasts updated?
Obsidian Energy Ltd. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Obsidian Energy Ltd.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, OBE included, share the SEC industry code Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas. The largest are: Shell Plc (SHEL), Totalenergies Se (TTE), Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PBR), Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ), Eni Spa (E), Eog Resources Inc (EOG).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.